
The past two post seasons have involved the Detroit Tigers relying on what they called “pitching chaos.” It’s a catchy term that gave strategic elegance to the reality of simply not having enough starting pitchers — a priority that sat atop of their offseason priorities.
The first move was signing Drew Anderson from overseas. A fine move, but one that signaled to many fans that the Tigers would not be serious about contending.
Well, it took a few months, but the Tigers front office and ownership made a statement to silence the doubters by inking Framber Valdez and brining back a Tigers legend in Justin Verlander. Two bona fide starters who bolster the rotation and take some pressure off Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal.
These are moves that were praised, and needed, ahead of the 2026 season. While most of the chatter is surrounding Skubal, Valdez, and Verlander, let’s not forget about Jack Flaherty and his importance to this team.
The quasi-No. 2 starter in 2025, Flaherty finished second in the rotation only to Skubal with a 3.85 FIP. He struck out more than 10 hitters per nine innings in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 2019 and 2020, and his back-to-back sub-4.00 FIPs is the first time he’s done so since 2018 and 2019.
While not always pretty, Flaherty was more valuable than Tigers fans might think.
When Flaherty first joined the Tigers ahead of the 2024 season, he was known for walking too many batters and being often injured. He quickly corrected those stereotypes and looked fantastic before being dealt to the Dodgers at the deadline.
He returned ahead of the 2025 season with high expectations, and by most eyes he did not meet them. Most will remember his back-to-back outings where he allowed seven and eight runs in June. Yet, they probably forget the three quality outings — each going six innings and allowing one, zero, and three runs — bookending his explosion.
August was another month where Flaherty had forgettable starts. There were three outings where he allowed five or more runs. He also had three August starts where he allowed a total of two runs, including a three-hit, nine-strikeout start across seven innings.
Rough patches, up-and-down velocity, and struggling to find the zone held him back at times. However, that did not make up the entirety of his season. His velocity was down 0.4 mph on his four-seamer, but it was the same, even a slight tick higher, on the rest of his offerings.
His movement profile was close enough to 2024 with some pitches performing better and his slider performing worse. Perhaps the biggest difference in data came with his swing-and-miss numbers. Each of his three primary offerings recorded a lower whiff rate than in 2024 with his fastball dropping by seven percent.
In my opinion, the biggest different that caused Flaherty’s issues was command. He didn’t start to walk the world, but command is more than just throwing strikes.
Flaherty did not have the same level of command on his breaking pitches, which caught more of the plate and resulted in more balls in play. This also impacted his fastball, as the two pitches were not playing off each other as well. This is what usually resulted in his blowup outings.
Sure, Flaherty’s 4.64 ERA is not what we had all expected, but his 3.97 xERA and 3.69 xFIP tell a different story.
Expectations minus reality equals disappointment. When the Tigers brought Flaherty back, the expectation was something resembling his first stint in a Tigers uniform: outings of dominance and high strikeouts flirting with an ERA in the low-to-mid 3.00s, all while making 25-plus starts.
A reminder that this level of production is a one Flaherty has only reach once since 2019.
Now, with the additions of Valdez and Verlander, the pressure to be a driver of team success is less than it was last spring. He’s no longer the guy who will get them over the top, but instead he is a piece to keep them steady.
Less pressure and lower expectations can help the mental side of things, but how about the physical?
I think the velocity discussion got a bit out of hand at times. There were games where the velocity dipped, but that’s rather normal across a 30-game sample. The graphic above shows Flaherty’s velocity by month across the 2025 season. Nothing too drastic or truly noteworthy, right?
Flaherty still has enough velocity to attack hitters, and fans saw that in his first spring outing where he averaged 93.7 mph, up nearly a tick from last year. Having the fastball play up to the level we know he can reach is going to make the breaking ball that much better, and vice versa.
His breaking balls, especially the knuckle curve, is what really helps bring swing-and-miss to the equation. When it’s on, it’s lethal. Last season, we saw only a one-percent drop in whiff rate on the pitch but a 10% jump in hard-hit rate. That comes back to pitch location and too many offerings clipping the lower part of the zone instead of darting outside of the zone.
The coaching staff was able to correct Flaherty’s flaws ahead of the 2024 season. Who’s to say they cannot do so again? We saw a high-level pitcher at times last season. In fact, Flaherty had 10 quality starts in 2025, only one fewer than he did in 2024.
At the end of the day, his pitches — both in terms of movement and velocity — from 2024 to 2025 are not so drastically different to believe there’s a ton of concern. To me, if all comes down to optimizing his breaking ball and working on his command. Improvements in that area will unlock his best self.
We aren’t talking about a guy who couldn’t throw a strike or imploded to the point of being unplayable. He didn’t suffer a major injury, his metrics didn’t crater throughout the season, and he isn’t reaching an age of steep decline.
Instead, this is a pitcher who has found a way to post back-to-back seasons of a sub-4.00 FIP, accumulate 185+ strikeouts, and pitch over 160 innings even when he did not have his best stuff. I’m not going to paint Flaherty as a true frontline starter, but a high-end middle-of-the-rotation arm is possible, if not probable.
In the grand scheme of things, fixing the command issues is a relatively simple ask. We have already seen the Tigers accomplish that once before, what’s stopping them from doing it again?
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