Jack's Take: Pressing Questions For Each National League Central Team

The Cubs entered the year with Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele as a one-two punch at the top of the rotation. But all of a sudden, Steele is out for the season with an elbow injury, and Imanaga was placed on the 15-day injured list Monday with a left hamstring strain. Javier Assad has also been on the injured list all season. A rotation that looked strong at the top – Imanaga finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting last season, and Steele had rattled off three straight seasons with an ERA of 3.18 or lower – but had questionable depth going into the season is now the Cubs' biggest concern, along with the bullpen.

Veterans Jameson Taillon (3.86 ERA), Matthrew Boyd (2.75 ERA) and Colin Rea (2.43 ERA) have pitched well to begin the season, but they've historically been back end of the rotation starters. It's hard to know exactly what Ben Brown will provide on a start-to-start basis, as he shut out the Dodgers and Brewers but has also gotten rocked a few times for a 4.95 ERA.

To help replace Imanaga and Steele, the Cubs are expected to call up right-hander Cade Horton – the team's No. 2 prospect who's ranked No. 46 in the MLB Pipeline – for their weekend series in New York against the Mets, per Tommy Birch of the Des Moines Register. Horton had a 1.24 ERA and an 0.86 WHIP in his first six starts with Triple-A Iowa this season.

Injuries to the starting rotation bring into question whether Chicago can really compete for a World Series this season, unless they make a big move or two before the trade deadline. But fortunately for the Cubs, such a strong start to the season gave them a bit of a cushion as they work through these injuries. Despite having the No. 1 strength of schedule in MLB so far, they lead the division by three games, highlighted by the addition of MVP candidate Kyle Tucker, the makings of a breakout season by Pete Crow-Armstrong and an unexpected boost from Carson Kelly.

2. Should Cardinals' win streak impact Arenado's future?

Perhaps the biggest question going into the season was whether the Cardinals would trade eight-time All-Star and 10-time Gold Glove third baseman Nolan Arenado. In December, Arenado used his no-trade clause to nix a deal with the Astros, and no other trades came to fruition. That remains a major topic as not much has changed with the Cardinals' long-term outlook since then.

With Arenado still on the team, the Cardinals have been the definition of streaky this year. They swept the Twins to begin the season, then lost six of their next seven games. St. Louis also had a five-game losing streak in mid-April, only to surge back to .500 with five straight wins over the Mets and Pirates this week. That puts the Cardinals in a three-way tie for second place in the NL Central and three games behind the Cubs, whose pitching injuries may give the rest of the division hope.

A few Cardinals have had standout seasons, such as NL batting average leader Brendan Donovan or former first-round pick Matthew Liberatore posting a .307 ERA in his first seven starts. But in the grand scheme of things, their recent win streak doesn't make the Cardinals contenders and shouldn't change plans of trading Arenado for a few reasons.

First, only six teams make the playoffs in each league, and I'd put six teams safely ahead of the Cardinals – in no order, the Mets, Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers, Padres and Giants – and could argue in favor of an additional three or four. Secondly, Arenado, 34, is past his prime and likely only going to keep regressing, so they should see what they can get for him while he's still a desired trade candidate.

3. Time to worry about Steer, McLain?

Infielders Spencer Steer and Matt McLain are supposed to be important pieces for the Reds' future, but they've fallen well short of expectations to begin the season. Both have batting averages below .190 and OPS below .590. McLain, the two-hitter on most nights, has a strikeout rate of 31.7%.

Their expected stats suggest slight improvements, but perhaps only because their results have been so poor to begin with. McLain is in the fifth percentile among MLB hitters with a .205 expected batting average, though he's 72nd in hard-hit percentage and 82nd in chase rate. Steer is 21st percentile or worse in average exit velocity, expected batting average and expected slugging percentage.

Steer has been a 20-home run, 20-stolen base guy in previous seasons, and McLain hit .290 with an .864 OPS as a rookie in 2023, before missing the entire 2024 season with a shoulder injury. If there's any hope for the Reds to reach the postseason in a highly competitive National League, they desperately need Steer and McLain to carry their weight.

4. Do Brewers have enough power?

The Brewers have won the last two NL Central division titles, but one aspect in particular stood out as they took on the Cubs last weekend in Milwaukee. Chicago won two of three games to extend their lead in the division, in large part because of their six home runs. Crow-Armstrong led the way with three, followed by Tucker, Michael Busch and Dansby Swanson with one apiece. Meanwhile, the Brewers slugged just one home run.

The four aforementioned Cubs have combined for 31 home runs this season. The entire Brewers roster? Just 31 home runs total. They're one of 10 teams that does not have a player with seven home runs or more. There are real concerns around Milwaukee's lack of power as the Brewers rank 21st in doubles, 22nd in home runs, 26th in slugging percentage and 22nd in OPS.

That's not to suggest the Brewers offense is broken. It still ranks 11th in MLB in runs scored. The Brewers' power struggle is offset by players like Brice Turang and Sal Frelick batting .318 and .297, respectively, strong situational hitting and base-stealing threats up and down the lineup.

Whether that approach can lead to a playoff berth is debatable, especially with so many good teams at the top of the National League. The Brewers need Christian Yelich (.356 SLG) and William Contreras (.331 SLG) – both career-low numbers – to start providing more pop.

5. Will Skenes become one of the youngest Cy Young winners?

The Pirates fired manager Derek Shelton on Thursday after a 12-26 start in his sixth season in Pittsburgh, a run that includes zero playoff appearances and zero seasons above .500. Given the underwhelming roster and the front office's unwillingness to spend big money, it's unlikely a managerial change leads to a significant turnaround midseason as the Pirates sit 10 games back of the Cubs for the division lead.

Perhaps the most intriguing storyline to follow with the Pirates the rest of the season is Paul Skenes chasing history. The reigning NL Rookie of the Year hasn't been quite as sharp this season, but he still has an impressive 2.77 ERA and 0.94 WHIP, a slight drop off from his 1.96 ERA last season as an All-Star. After finishing third in NL Cy Young voting last season, Skenes should be right in the mix yet again. He and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are the co-favorites on FanDuel at plus-300 odds.

If Skenes were to win the Cy Young award, he'd join rare company. He turns 23 years old on May 29, and the last 23-year-old to win the Cy Young was Clayton Kershaw in 2011. Just seven pitchers in MLB history have won the Cy Young at 23 years old or younger: Dwight Gooden (20 in 1985), Fernando Valenzuela (20 in 1981), Bret Saberhagen (21 in 1985), Vida Blue (21 in 1971), Clayton Kershaw (23 in 2011), Roger Clemens (23 in 1986) and Dean Chance (23 in 1964).

While there's not much team success to look forward to in Pittsburgh, tracking Skenes' incredible performances throughout the season should be fun.

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