With two weeks left in the season, the San Diego Padres have a firm grasp on a Wild Card spot and are two games back from the first-place Dodgers. So, it is safe to assume that the Padres will be playing baseball in October.
Everyone knows the postseason isn’t about being the best team — it’s about being the hottest team going in. And Jackson Merrill is getting hot for the Padres at exactly the right time.
Over his last 11 games, Merrill is hitting .310 with a 1.174 OPS, a stretch that should give the Friar faithful plenty of reason for optimism. Fans who watched him last year know the level of impact he’s capable of. If the Padres can get that version of Merrill back for October, look out.
Stats updated prior to games on Sept. 17.
On the outside, Merrill seems to be much more comfortable at the plate. Fans are seeing fewer tentative swings and more confident takes. But the most important thing is that Merrill is catching up to the fastball.
His batting average against fastballs in September is .308, and his average exit velocity has increased by 5.9 mph.
Another promising aspect of Merrill’s hot stretch is that the power seems to be back. During his 11-game hot streak, 10 of his 13 hits have gone for extra bases, and five have been home runs. More impressively, all five of those home runs have been hit out to center or left field.
Lights, Camera, Jackson. pic.twitter.com/Kvlb2SQxF5
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) September 7, 2025
While his plate discipline is still lacking, seeing Merrill make harder contact gives the Padres a lot to look forward to as the season winds down.
The Padres rank 22nd in slugging percentage and 29th in home runs, so Merrill finding his stroke should add thump to the lineup and help elevate the Padres’ offense to the elite level many expected it to be at this season. The lack of continuity throughout the lineup to this point can largely be attributed to Merrill’s up-and-down season.
The Padres’ lineup becomes exponentially harder to work through when it features a rolling Merrill. He has driven in 10 runs in his last 11 games, helping San Diego’s offense run like a well-oiled machine. And once a pitcher does work through Merrill, they still have to face power threats like Ramón Laureano, Ryan O’Hearn, and Gavin Sheets.
Ballin' like Merrill Madness. pic.twitter.com/5RCzjQzORE
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) September 12, 2025
It is obviously nice to see that Merrill is back to mashing the baseball, but how can he sustain the success?
He will need to continue playing to his strengths, which are hunting pitches away and driving them to the opposite field. Another key will be to stay aggressive and avoid falling back into the tentative approach that haunted him earlier this season. When Merrill is on time against the fastball, his swing naturally unlocks power to all fields.
The Padres don’t need Merrill to be a superstar every night, but they do need him to be a consistent presence in the middle of the lineup. If he keeps producing extra-base hits, it forces pitchers to pitch to the rest of the order — and that’s when San Diego becomes dangerous.
The playoffs are often defined by a handful of players who get hot at the right time. If Merrill keeps trending upward, there’s a real chance he could be that guy for the Padres this October.
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