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Jazz Chisholm Jr. doubles down on Royals ‘luck’ accusation

Originally posted on MLB on ClutchPoints
By Russell Steinberg | Last updated Oct 8, 2024 5:35 PM ET

The New York Yankees may no longer have a lead in their American League Division Series against the Kansas City Royals, but their third baseman still has confidence.

Jazz Chisholm Jr. spoke to the media after Game 2 of the 2024 ALDS, a 4-2 Royals win in New York. Asked if the series felt any different knotted at 1-1, he said no.

“It still feels the same that we’re going to win it. I don’t feel like anybody feels any different,” he said. “We’re going to go out there and do our thing still. We still don’t feel like any team is better than us. Like you said, we had a lot of missed opportunities tonight, so they just got lucky.”

By itself, it’s not a particularly inflammatory statement. The Yankees had the best record in the American League — as professional athletes, they should have confidence. And they did have plenty of opportunities that they failed to capitalize on. Saying the Royals got lucky maybe isn’t the best way to phrase it, but Chisholm wasn’t putting them down as a team as much as he was expressing confidence in himself and his teammates.

But don’t worry, Chisholm doubled down on social media.

“If you don’t believe you gonna win it you won’t ! So you better speak this shii into existence and believe! #LFG

” he wrote, before a few reposts of people supporting him.

Was Yankees 3B Jazz Chisholm right about the Royals getting lucky?

Kansas City Royals pitcher Lucas Erceg (60) reacts with catcher Salvador Perez (13) after the final out in game two of the ALDS against the New York Yankees for the 2024 MLB Playoffs at Yankee Stadium. Brad Penner-Imagn Images

One of the accounts Chisholm reposted was from the so-called MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter, which accounts for when in a game teams get their hits and uses that to determine how lucky the winning team was. According to their formula, the Royals’ “deserve to win” rating was only 20%, compared to 72% for the Yankees.

——— ALERT ———
Royals are luck merchants!
Royals at Yankees (10/07/2024)
Actual score: Royals 4, Yankees 2
Deserve-to-win: Royals 20%, Yankees 72%, Tie 8%#MLB #Statcast #MLBSimRoyals #MLBSimYankees #Baseball #Royals #Yankees pic.twitter.com/1s68bnmqb1

— MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter (@mlb_simulator) October 8, 2024

“Royals are luck merchants!” the account proclaimed in the post that Chisholm shared.

The account shared three charts within that post to support its claim. One of them showed the run distribution in 2,000 simulations that the account ran using the game’s data. The most likely scenario, it says, was a 4-3 Yankees win. Another was a comparison of exit velocity and launch angle to gauge quality contact and the other showed estimated total bases on balls put in play.

It takes a while to decipher it all, but ultimately none of it matters. Whether the Yankees deserved to win or not, they didn’t. Carlos Rodon pitched three sparkling innings before falling apart in the fourth and the New York offense wasn’t able to back him up.

As a result, either the Yankees or Royals will push their opponent to the brink of elimination in Game 3 on Wednesday. Much like Game 2, that one will be played on the field, not on paper.

This article first appeared on MLB on ClutchPoints and was syndicated with permission.

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