We are near the finish line!
With the draft starting on Sunday evening, it’s time to release another edition of the test in futility. Things have become clearer on many fronts in this class, even with some wrenches thrown our way in recent weeks. Jared and Tyler do their best to dissect what could be a chaotic draft. Our fingers are currently feel like pool noodles, if anyone cares.
To note, this mock will be updated on Sunday afternoon before the draft. There’s a chance that things could change significantly, especially at the top. Stay tuned.
Kade Anderson isn’t a dark horse candidate for the No. 1 overall pick anymore.
His polish, pitchability, and SEC track record make him one of the few arms in the class who could move quickly through a farm system, something that might appeal to a Nationals organization in transition. Washington’s recent front office shakeup, including the dismissal of GM Mike Rizzo and manager Dave Martinez, could open the door for a fresh draft philosophy.
That said, Ethan Holliday remains a strong contender with superstar upside and the kind of prep profile teams dream on. It’s between those two at this moment, though you can make a case for Aiva Arquette. The pick may come down to whether the Nationals prioritize ceiling or proximity to the big leagues.
Liam Doyle could be a strong match for the Angels at No. 2 overall, especially given their consistent preference for college players and aversion to prep talent in early rounds.
With one of the most dominant fastballs in college baseball, Doyle fits the mold of a quick mover, something Los Angeles has prioritized in recent drafts. With the Angels’ predictable draft history, a high-floor, fast-moving college player still feels like the safest bet.
If the Nationals select Ethan Holliday, then Kade Anderson is the pick here.
The Mariners appear to be a pivotal point within the top five, as the outcome of the first two picks may influence their decision-making.
However, we’ll stay chalk here in this scenario. Assuming either Anderson or Doyle aren’t available, the Mariners will stick with Aiva Arquette. Seth Hernandez, Ike Irish, and JoJo Parker are dark horse picks here.
Here’s the situation: if Holliday isn’t the first overall pick, the Rockies will pay overslot money to him at four. If Holliday winds up in Washington, the expectation is that Colorado takes Liam Doyle or Jamie Arnold.
Colorado is not afraid to spend on their top picks (Condon, Dollander, and Veen are recent top ten picks that received slot or more).
Two names have been connected to the Cardinals in recent weeks: Eli Willits and Jamie Arnold. While we did mock Arnold here last time, we’ll pivot to Willits in this edition. Chaim Bloom has, again, only drafted one college arm in his career.
Willits does have some steam here, and he fits the “high-contact, high-probability infielder” mold.
Our gut feel, based upon recent rumblings, is this: the Pirates may be more inclined to pivot towards a collegiate player than a prep. While I fully believe that Hernandez makes sense here, though, given Pittsburgh’s three other Top 100 selections, they’ll stick with Jamie Arnold here.
The buzz surrounding the Marlins is leaning heavily into the prep side, which certainly fits their approach. With Willits off the board, it comes down to Billy Carlson and JoJo Parker, with Carlson seeming more likely than Parker.
I wouldn’t discount Carlson’s high school teammate, Hernandez, either.
The recent steam surrounding the Blue Jays has been prep shortstops. Carlson/Parker have, once again, been linked here, and with Carlson gone, Parker is the selection in this mock. Role reversal between the two is possible, plus I wouldn’t be shocked to see Toronto dive into the college pitching side if both are gone.
The prep pitching slip strikes again, and while Hernandez certainly has suitors within the 5-8 range, I begin to question which team would have the patience to develop him. That’s not to make it seem like a bad thing, but the prep pitching demographic is extremely volatile.
The Reds endured this with Hunter Greene and could do it again if he’s available. If not, Jamie Arnold and Ike Irish make sense here.
Let the fun begin!
The hot rumor right now is that the White Sox are inclined to overpay for a big prep at pick 44, which would leave the idea open to an under-slot deal here. They’ve been linked to a plethora of prep infielders, though, with the big names off the board, Kayson Cunningham makes the most sense to make this strategy work.
Steele Hall is a name thrown in here, plus it wouldn’t be a stretch to see a college bat or arm in this slot.
College seems to be the way to go with the Athletics, and a bunch of names are being considered here. They are the first team heavily in on UCSB RHP Tyler Bremner, and given their recent success with pitching development, it’s a fit that makes perfect sense.
Gavin Kilen, Wehiwa Aloy, and a few others are linked in some capacity, as well.
The Rangers do love JoJo Parker, and this will be his floor assuming he makes it here.
However, he doesn’t in this mock, which casts a wider net for them to pick from. This is more of a “gut feel” pick than anything else, but I expect the Rangers to lean towards the prep side, taking Great Oak’s Gavin Fien. If it’s not Fien, Kayson Cunningham certainly fits here.
If Irish happens to fall this far, the Giants would be ecstatic. This scenario likely doesn’t happen, but the value would be too good to pass up.
If Irish gets plucked somewhere in the top ten (which is what seems likely), then the Giants may pivot to guys like Wehiwa Aloy, Daniel Pierce, and Kyson Witherspoon (to name a few).
Given all the noise, would we be shocked if Steele Hall wasn’t a Ray after Sunday? Probably. Could it all be a smoke screen? Also probably.
Either way, Hall fits the profile that the Rays tend to love. One of the youngest players in the class, Hall offers rare upside with advanced defensive instincts and athleticism at shortstop, along with a developing hit tool. It’s a fun match and one to keep an eye on.
Other names to watch are SS Daniel Pierce and RHP Kyson Witherspoon.
Boston leaned heavily into the college side last year, taking just two prepsters in the entire draft, and there’s been nothing to convince me otherwise in 2025. Kyson Witherspoon is a fit here, though the Red Sox may be more inclined to take a contact-oriented bat here.
Enter Gavin Kilen. Boston relies heavily upon their model, and Kilen grades out well in that regard. Gavin Fien makes sense if they choose to go for a prep bat, though that’s unlikely.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see a college bat in this position, though I don’t envision Witherspoon falling farther than this. It’s great value for an arm that some wouldn’t expect to be available this deep, plus the Twins can develop arms well, and he’d fit their model. Imagine if they got this kind of clay in their lab.
If it’s not Witherspoon, you can write in guys like Jace LaViolette and Brendan Summerhill.
Shortstops are linked heavily to the Cubs here, and I think it comes down to Wehiwa Aloy or Marek Houston. Aloy is a better athlete with much better pop, albeit it comes with a riskier hit tool. However, the upside is immense. If Aloy goes earlier, then Houston makes much more sense.
A plethora of college bats have steam here, including the aforementioned Houston and Caden Bodine. The Diamondbacks do have another top 30 selection, which tickles the idea of an underslot deal here. Summerhill fits what Arizona looks for, regardless of strategy or not.
If Kayson Cunningham isn’t the link at 10 for Chicago, he makes sense here, too.
Jace LaViolette makes a lot of sense for the Orioles at pick 19, especially with Baltimore holding three first-round selections (19, 30, and 31) and ample bonus pool space to get creative.
The Orioles love guys who bludgeon the baseball and get on base. Few players in the class can match LaViolette’s raw power; he’s already hit 68 home runs in college and consistently posts exit velocities north of 115 MPH. There are some concerns with the hit tool, but that doesn’t hinder his ability to draw a walk.
If the bat continues to develop, LaViolette has the upside to be one of the more dangerous middle-of-the-order bats in this class and would fit the Orioles’ mold perfectly.
The Brewers love to get creative with their draft strategies, and this year should be no exception. They’ll pick again at 32 and have three more day one selections.
There’s a wide net cast here, though this is a logical landing spot for Marek Houston. It’s a safer floor with limited power, but he brings a consistent track record to Milwaukee.
The Astros are a bit of a wild card here, as there are a few college bats they’re linked to. However, there’s some late buzz on Gage Wood being a possibility here.
There are links for Wood in the late teens, though I wonder how teams view his medical history (he did have a shoulder impingement this spring). If he is gone by this point, expect a bat.
Riley Quick fits the Braves’ draft profile well. He’s a physical, strike-throwing right-hander with a strong track record of performance. Atlanta has consistently targeted polished college arms who can move quickly through the system, and Quick’s command and ability to attack the zone make him a natural fit.
While his ceiling may not be as flashy as others in the class, his floor as a reliable rotation piece aligns with how the Braves have built pitching depth in recent drafts. Gage Wood is another strong link here, too.
Josh Hammond fits the mold of what the Royals have prioritized in recent drafts: high-upside athletes with loud tools and positional versatility.
With two first-round picks at 23 and 28 and over $7 million in bonus pool money to work with, Kansas City could target Hammond as a potential over-slot play who brings premium bat speed, the ability to stick on the left side of the infield, and an 80-grade makeup.
With the bonus pool flexibility, there have been talks that the Royals will try to pull someone down to 23 and go after the guy they really want. That could be someone like Hammond.
Detroit could go a multitude of directions here, though I wonder if their comp round selection allows them to buy down one of the prep shortstops and spend money. It isn’t just limited to shortstops, either. Kruz Schoolcraft has been mentioned here.
In this scenario, the Tigers take a gamble on Georgia SS Daniel Pierce, an excellent athlete with great defensive chops and insane bat speed.
Another year, another prep? It sure seems like that streak will continue.
It is very likely that San Diego will reach on a player here given their bonus pool situation, which sits as the third-lowest in this class. Xavier Neyens and Slater de Brun have some heat, though the Padres take a gamble on Sean Gamble here (I’ll be here all week, thanks).
Ryan Mitchell has a list of suitors in the back half of the twenties, and considering the strategy Philadelphia employed a year ago with Dante Nori and Griffin Burkholder, there’s a chance it happens again. Mitchell would come in with an under-slot deal here.
If they go college, Riley Quick and Caden Bodine are mentioned here.
It would be a bit of a trend-breaker for Cleveland here, as they love to target lefty bats. However, Bodine should fit their model well. He’s an atypical catching prospect with a hit-over-power prowess, but he delivers consistency and defensive upside.
Other names that make sense include Ethan Conrad, Cam Cannarella, or even Anthony Eyanson if they want an arm.
Ethan Conrad could be an ideal fit for the Royals at pick 28, especially for a team that has lacked a premier outfield bat prospect, which has been a true weakness of the team at the Major League level.
One of the best pure hitters in the class, Conrad brings a dynamic left-handed bat with advanced feel for the barrel, elite bat speed, and the ability to handle both velocity and spin. The shoulder injury he suffered this spring may push him down boards slightly, but it is doubtful that Conrad makes it out of the first round.
The Royals have been linked to some college outfield bats, but there are also rumors they have been interested in prep outfielders and premier college arms.
We let Arizona draft a Slade Caldwell clone, and we are not sorry for it. There’s a link to de Brun at 18 for Arizona, though if they employ the draft strategy mentioned before, this makes more sense.
Potentially saving some money on LaViolette at 19 could pay off dividends for the Orioles at 30. That brings us to prep 3B/OF Xavier Neyens, who is another prospect with some insane power and high on-base skills.
Neyens brings an elite combination of bat-to-ball skills, zone control, and emerging plus power from the left side, traits that align with Baltimore’s preference for mature offensive profiles. Neyens would be a fun fit for the Orioles’ development abilities with bats, and with their opportunity to manipulate slot values, it feels like they could pull him down to 30.
There have been some rumors that the Orioles do love the safe floor bats out of the University of Tennessee.
Enter Andrew Fischer. Fischer could be a strong value pick for the Orioles at 31, especially if they’re looking to add another left-handed power bat with middle-of-the-order potential. Fischer has shown he can produce against elite pitching, punishing fastballs, and doing real damage to his pull side with a swing built for backspin and loft.
Baltimore usually targets guys who are strong defenders, but with three picks in the first round they could potentially get Fischer at slot value here and afford to take a shot on Fischer’s offensive ceiling here and afford to take a shot on Fischer’s offensive ceiling here.
That aforementioned Brewers’ creativity? Here it is! Jaden Fauske is, in our opinion, an underrated prep bat in this class, though he fits more in the outfield than behind the plate. It’s a lovely swing, and he’ll hit for average and power moving forward. He’d fit in very well in the Brewers system.
With the likelihood of Kilen coming in with a haircut, Boston can afford to spend a bit of dough with this selection, grabbing Coy James from Davie County, NC. He’s a fun profile to dive into, plus his power has grown this spring.
Detroit has shown a willingness to bet on toolsy outfielders, and Mason Neville brings a rare combination of speed, athleticism, and raw power from the left side. He’s flashed exit velocities over 110 MPH and has the wheels to stick in center field.
They’ve got some slot value to play with having two picks in the top 35. If they got with a high upside prep at 24 like Daniel Pierce, they may have to pay up some. Neville might provide them with some savings at 34.
This selection has a ton of prep buzz connected to it, though I’ll go a bit under the radar with this one. Cooper Flemming has been getting steam in this range for a couple of weeks now, and he fits the Mariners’ development style very well.
He could turn into a mold similar to Cole Young and Colt Emerson.
This pick is a bit more in line with the Twins’ model. A draft-eligible sophomore, Stevenson is a big, burly catcher with significant pop and great defense behind the plate, though he comes with hit tool warts. However, it fits the high on-base, big power profile they like.
This pick could offer some discounts for the Rays, who have another selection at 42. After a mid-season “dry spell,” Forbes finished the year on a high note, being a key cog to Louisville’s Omaha finish. His fastball is amongst the best in this class, and the Rays know how to develop arms.
The Mets have become a bit of a pitching lab in recent years (look at their recent drafts and successes that follow). Zach Root has buzz in the top 40 picks, and he would fit in very well with the Mets’ development system. He has traits that they covet.
Brandon Compton put on an absolute show in Arizona during the combine, and the Yankees typically covet his profile. A physical lefty with tons of power in the stick? Sign us up.
The first of back-to-back selections for the Dodgers, Young has gained some steam in this range. It’s a hometown selection for the team, though it’s more than just that. Young has prodigious power and traits in his profile, though his hit tool has question marks. He may be a bit pricey.
To help alleviate money woes with Young, the Dodgers take LSU’s Anthony Eyanson, bringing him back to the West Coast. Eyanson has excellent breaking balls and command, even if the fastball shape isn’t fantastic. It’s a budding pitch mix that should fit in this system well, though he does have some suitors higher than this.
Tate Southisene is a powder keg of tools, and he fits what the Rays look for well. For our money, there’s a chance that he’s better than his older brother, Ty. It’s huge twitch and explosive bat speed from the right side with loud arm strength.
Watson may be a higher floor than most arms his age, but he’s advanced in many assets, including mentally. He knows how to pitch, and he’s tuned up his arsenal a bit. He has the look of a back-end starter.
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