Jul 11, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Kevin Gausman (34) throws a pitch during the first inning against the San Francisco Giants at Oracle Park. Sergio Estrada-Imagn Images

Kevin Gausman Projected For Steady 2025 Season Atop Toronto Blue Jays' Rotation

Originally posted on Fastball on SI | By Sam Connon | Last updated Jan 12, 2025 5:30 PM ET

The Toronto Blue Jays are still in the market for a pitcher to round out their starting rotation, but for the time being, Kevin Gausman is slated to be their ace once again in 2025.

Gausman was a stud in his first two seasons north of the border – placing ninth in AL Cy Young voting in 2022 and third in 2023 – before taking a bit of a step back in 2024. He still made 31 starts, but he saw his ERA climb from 3.16 to 3.83, his ERA+ go from 136 to 105, his strikeout total drop from 237 to 162 and his fWAR fall from 5.1 to 2.9.

While Gausman may post slightly better numbers in 2025, he still isn't expected to return to his early 30s self this season.

FanGraphs has been slowly rolling out its ZiPS projections for 2025, and Dan Szymborski wrote up a piece diving into the Blue Jays' outlook on Friday.

Gausman is projected to toss 162.2 innings across 28 starts, posting a 12-9 record with a 3.65 ERA, 1.230 WHIP, 158 strikeouts and a 114 ERA+. A projected fWAR of 3.8 has him atop Toronto's rotation, with José Berríos, Chris Bassitt and Bowden Francis coming in at 2.8, 2.7 and 2.3.

2025 ZiPS Projections - Toronto Blue Jays, now LIVE at @FanGraphs.https://t.co/E5zdfXQZHg #ZiPS25
— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) January 10, 2025

Gausman is on the books for $23 million in 2025, then another $23 million in 2026. He will hit free agency in 2027, at which point he will be 36 years old.

If Gausman is going to prove he can be a dependable MLB starter in his mid-to-late 30s, the veteran right-hander has to stop his strikeout rate from tanking further. It already dropped from 31.1% to 21.4% between 2023 and 2024, which isn't exactly a promising sign for Gausman's late-stage development.

FanGraphs' ZiPS projections have Gausman's strikeout rate rebounding to 23.2% in 2025.

Toronto's own internal projections probably don't have Gausman becoming an ace again either, which is why they were in the market for free agents Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Luis Severino. After striking out on all three of them, the Blue Jays' top remaining targets are Nick Pivetta and Jack Flaherty, neither of whom would be likely to unseat Gausman atop the rotation.

That places more weight on Gausman's shoulders to remain a steady force this coming season, even if he isn't the pitcher he was a few years ago.

This article first appeared on Fastball on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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