Key Cubs reliever shut down at least another two weeks

Cubs righty Adbert Alzolay has been on the injured list since May 13 due to a flexor strain, and it seems a return in the near future isn’t likely. 

Manager Craig Counsell told the team’s beat that Alzolay, who recently received a second opinion on the injury, will be shut down entirely for at least two more weeks, via Meaghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. A lengthier shutdown is possible, but he’ll be reevaluated in 14 days to gauge any progress. For the time being, surgery is not a consideration.

The 29-year-old was easily the Cubs’ top reliever in 2023, pacing the team with 22 saves and leading their relievers with a 2.67 earned run average. The former top prospect punched out 26.5% of his opponents against a sharp 5.1% walk rate. Alzolay got out to a much rockier start in 2024, logging a 4.67 ERA in 17 1/3 innings as his strikeout and walk rates swung dramatically in the wrong direction (17.3% and 8%, respectively).

Given those struggles and what increasingly looks like a lengthy stay on the injured list, it’s fair to presume Alzolay wasn’t pitching at full strength prior to his IL placement. His sinker lost a full mile per hour from last year (95.3 mph to 94.3 mph), and his four-seamer is down just over a half mile as well, checking in at 94.7 mph in ’24 after sitting 95.3 mph in ’23, per Statcast.

It’s tough for any team to lose its top reliever, of course, but it’s particularly troublesome for a Cubs bullpen that has ranked in the bottom half of MLB in most categories. Chicago relievers are 20th in baseball with a 4.15 ERA, and fielding-independent metrics grade them similarly (17th in FIP at 3.92, 15th in SIERA at 3.63). The bullpen does collectively have the eighth-best strikeout rate of any relief corps in MLB (24.4%)…but also the eighth-highest walk rate (10.3%).

Further complicating matters is the fact that righty Julian Merryweather, one of the team’s top setup men and top strikeout arms last season, is already on the 60-day injured list due to a stress fracture in his ribcage. Counsell indicated this week that Merryweather has been cleared to resume throwing but also noted that his IL stint will exceed the 60-day minimum, via Ryan Herrera of CHGO Sports. That’ll push him into mid-June in a best-case scenario. However, with Merryweather just starting a throwing program and needing to build toward facing live hitters before an eventual minor league rehab assignment, it’s feasible his IL stint could stretch to late June or even into July.

With Alzolay and Merryweather shelved, Hector Neris and Mark Leiter Jr. are the only two members of the Cubs’ bullpen with any late-inning experience of note in the majors. Neris signed a one-year, $9M deal over the winter and currently sports a 2.50 ERA but also a career-worst 17% walk rate. Leiter has been excellent, continuing to make good on the jackpot the Cubs hit in minor league free agency a few years back. Beyond that pairing, things get far murkier.

The only other member of the Cubs’ bullpen with even two years of MLB service is Kyle Hendricks, who was just dropped to a relief role after struggling immensely in the rotation. Righties Hayden Wesneski and Jose Cuas are the next-most “senior” members of the unit. Each entered the season with just over a year of service time, and both have been optioned at least once this season. The Cubs are hopeful that recently reacquired Tyson Miller can fill a late-inning role, and they’re giving looks to homegrown rookies like Porter Hodge and Luke Little as well. But the bullpen as a whole is quite light on established arms, exacerbating the impact of losing two of last year’s top relievers.

The Cubs still find themselves just 1.5 games back of the Brewers from the division lead. They’re 3.5 games up on a surging Cardinals club, with Pittsburgh only a half-game behind St. Louis. The Reds sit eight games back of the division lead — a notable but also hardly insurmountable deficit with so much of the season yet to play out. Given Chicago’s active offseason — bringing in Shota Imanaga, re-signing Cody Bellinger, signing Neris, trading for Michael Busch — the front office will likely be looking to add to the roster so long as the team remains within striking distance in what’s currently a wide-open division. Every postseason hopeful tends to be on the lookout for relief pitching come deadline season, but the Cubs’ need is shaping up to be more acute than most contenders.