Kurtz vs Alonso 2026 Fantasy Comparison

Pete Alonso’s Season

Pete Alonso has a big year with the Mets.  The fact that Juan Soto batted in front of him cannot be overlooked.  The Mets’ were ninth in runs scored and the Orioles were 24th.

Alonso hit .272 with 38 home runs while driving in 138, scoring 87 and stealing one base.

Nick Kurtz’s Rookie Year

Nick Kurtz was the rookie of the year in the American League.  He played in 117 games last year. He hit the ball really hard, having a 92.7 average exit velocity.

Kurtz hit .290 with 36 home runs while driving in 86 runs, scoring 90 and stealing two bases.

2026 Projections Head-to-Head

When we look to make a choice like this — with 53 seconds left on the clock — we need to think fast.

Age & Health

Alonso is 31, but has had a stretch of playing just about every game every season.  Pete’s three year average is 159 games played.  His age is a factor, but his power numbers are not regressing, it is improving.  He had 18.9% barrels with a 15.4 launch angle with 93.5 average exit velocity.  These are all huge improvements.

Kurtz is 22 years old with a small MLB sample size. He was hurt a fair amount last year, playing in only 117 games. He came up at the end of April but missed time with a hip flexor injury and lower-body fatigue, which raises some concern.

Teams & Lineups

For Alonso, going from the Mets’ lineup where he had table setters like Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto and Brandon Nimmo in front of him, he was able to drive in a lot of runs.  Compare that to Jackson Holiday, Jordan Westburg and Gunnar Henderson.  The first two are .310 OBP players and Gunnar is a good player with a .350 or so OBP.  As we mentioned, he goes from the team that scored the 9th most runs to one that was ranked 24th.

For Kurtz, the Athletics scored runs last season, ranking 12th overall, though the ballpark likely played a role. Kurtz should bat third in a solid but unspectacular lineup with Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker ahead of him and Tyler Soderstrom behind him.

To me, this is a wash. Thirty-five seconds left.

Ballparks

A quick look at the two ballparks:

Camden Yards would be a significant boost for Pete Alonso if he were a left-handed hitter. Right-handed hitters there hit 22% more home runs than the league average, while Citi Field sits at 17%, giving Alonso a net 5% home run lift in Baltimore.

Sutter Health is a small park that gives left-handed power hitters an 8% home run boost. More importantly, it inflates run scoring by roughly 10% compared to league average. Counting stats beware.

Projections

Quick ... 20 seconds.

Pete Alonso breaks a rule of engagement in the SMART System. We must discount all players who sign big contracts to go to new teams.  So for me, we have to discount him since his April will likely not be great while he adjusts.  Also, last year, he had a BABIP that was inflated showing that the .272 batting average may be more like .250. He is hitting the ball hardcan and the ball park helps, so:

• Pete Alonso: .250 AVG, 45 HR, 95 RBI, 80 R, 3 SB

Nick Kurtz also breaks a rule of engagement due to limited playing time (fewer than 800 at-bats). Rookie of the Year winners rarely struggle in their sophomore season, but his injury history and the league’s offseason adjustments give pause. Just look at Gunnar Henderson’s follow-up season.

• Nick Kurtz: .270 AVG, 35 HR, 100 RBI, 95 R, 1 SB

Summary

With five seconds on the clock, I picked Nick Kurtz. The primary reason is upside. He could hit 50 home runs, and if he does, his counting numbers will exceed Pete Alonso’s. He will also almost certainly hit for a higher batting average.

This is close, but when in doubt, age, upside, and gut feeling win.

Baseball is life.

People Also Ask

Who has higher fantasy value in 2026: Nick Kurtz or Pete Alonso?
Nick Kurtz edges Alonso in upside in many rankings.

What is Nick Kurtz’s 2026 outlook after his rookie year?
Strong power growth is expected with some injury risk.

How does Pete Alonso’s move to Baltimore impact fantasy value?
He gains a modest home run boost but may see fewer RBI chances.

Who are the best first basemen in 2026 behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?
Nick Kurtz and Pete Alonso sit in the next tier.

How do Kurtz and Alonso’s 2026 projections compare?
Kurtz offers a higher ceiling, while Alonso provides a steadier floor.