Kyle Amendt is Another Sleeper Diamondbacks Reliever

Amendt stands at an imposing and strong bodied 6-foot-5. A product of Dallas Baptist University, Amendt is an older prospect, drafted in his age-23 season in 2023. He throws a low-90's fastball, a curve, and a slider. The curve is a 12-6 offering that he developed watching Adam Wainwright and Clayton Kershaw.

Amendt throws from a very high arm slot, and evokes some comparisons to former Diamondback Josh Collmenter. While not quite that extreme, his arm slot, deception, and shape of his curveball have been the key elements to his early success.

Why Kyle Amendt may outperform his projection

Due to the fact that he is further down the depth chart at the moment, it's difficult to project him to get a lot of innings. But the team was very aggressive in promoting him from the low minors up to AA and then AAA in 2024. He finished his season with a stint in the Arizona Fall League.

This is all very indicative of how the team views him. In part due to his age, but mostly due to his dominance, the team is anxious to see if his stuff can translate to the major leagues.

That is not a typo you are seeing in the K% column, which is close to double the major league average. He struck out 100 batters in 56 minor league innings the last two seasons. That works out to 16.1 K/9. He also gave up just 31 hits and two homers.

With this kind of dominance, it's easy to see why the team has moved him up quickly. It's also not hard to envision him beating that 3.83 ERA projection if he maintains this level of strikeout performance.

Why Amendt may underperform projections

Like many young pitchers with dominant stuff, the last hurdle to cross is command and control. Amendt has walked 33 of the 233 batters faced in the minors, over 14%. He walked 14 batters in 12 innings for the Reno Aces, then four more in 5.2 innings in the Arizona Fall League.

When facing the better hitters of in the Pacific Coast League, and the high-end hitting prospects in the Fall League, they were able to make him pay for that wildness. In 17.2 combined innings across those two leagues he gave up 16 hits, including two homers. In all he allowed 10 earned runs at those levels.

The projection above is already regressing his walk rate in a positive way, dropping his walk rate from 14% in MiLB to 11% in MLB. That would already constitute a pretty big leap forward, but still leave him with a walk rate higher than the MLB average. If he walks 11% in MLB, let alone 14%, hitters will punish him.

Summary

Kyle Amendt is a fascinating pitcher. Intelligent and articulate, he has made adjustments and fashioned a career and a legitimate shot at a major league call up in 2025.

In order to maximize his stuff, arm slot, and deception, he'll need to find a way to throw more strikes and reduce his walk rate. If he ever gets his walk rate down to about a league average 9%, he could dominate at the Major League level.

Be sure to check out our interview with Amendt during the Arizona Fall League season. He explains how he got to where is now in detail.

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