Kyle Tucker trade return makes Astros Opening Day roster

It’s been an incredible whirlwind for Smith, who was a student at Florida State a year ago. In July, the Cubs selected him with the 14th overall pick in the draft and signed him to a $5,070,700 bonus. The Cubs put the young third baseman to work right away, getting him into 15 Single-A games, 12 at High-A and five at Double-A. He walked in 11.2% of his plate appearances and was only struck out at a 17.9% clip. He launched seven home runs in 134 plate appearances and had a combined .313/.396/.609 batting line.

That made him one of the top prospects in baseball going into 2025. The Cubs went into the winter with a loaded farm system but a big league roster that had struggled to push beyond the mushy middle, finishing at 83-79 in each of the past two years. 

They were looking for a big splash and the Astros were reportedly open to moving Kyle Tucker. He’s a tremendous player but was slated for free agency after 2025, with Houston seemingly having no hope of getting an extension done. The Astros also had a preference to avoid the competitive balance tax this year.

The Cubs, as mentioned, had a very strong farm system. That included a couple of infield guys who were viewed as ahead of Smith. Matt Shaw and Owen Caissie are both on many top 100 prospect lists and each of them reached the Triple-A level in 2024.

All those stars aligned to make the trade happen. The Astros sent Tucker to Wrigley in exchange for third baseman Isaac Paredes, pitcher Hayden Wesneski and Smith. From the Cubs’ perspective, they were giving up a lot in the long term in order to make a big upgrade in 2025. Smith, as a prospect, was obviously a long play. Paredes still had three years of club control and would be an affordable replacement for Bregman at third base. Wesneski, with five years of club control, gave the club some affordable rotation depth.

Arguably, the Astros were making themselves worse in the short term, in order to save some money and come out ahead in the long run. Bregman and Tucker were two big losses. Parades could make up for some of Bregman’s production but likely not all. The outfield looked clearly worse on paper when compared to last year, especially with Yordan Alvarez slated to spend more time as the designated hitter. But beyond 2025, they weren’t going to have Tucker anyway. Now they would have Paredes, Wesneski and Smith’s contributions.

The short-term picture has changed a lot since camp opened. Smith put up a massive line of .342/.419/.711 in Grapefruit League action. As he started building those impressive numbers, there were whispers that the club wanted to get him work in right field, with Paredes blocking Smith’s natural third base position. It seems he has impressed the decision-makers enough to get the Opening Day nod, despite his very limited professional track record of just 32 professional games, none at the Triple-A level.

The outfield picture also changed in another way. Jose Altuve, who has been Houston’s second baseman for over a decade, is now going to be the left fielder. His glovework at the keystone was never great but has declined significantly as he has pushed into his mid-30s.

Overall, it’s a fascinating gambit for the Astros. Moving Alvarez out of left field makes sense, given all the health scares he has had over the years. Trading Tucker was also risky in its own way. Now they seem likely to feature a regular outfield mix of Jake Meyers in center, flanked by Altuve and Smith. Meyers hasn’t hit much in his career but is a strong defender. That glovework figures to be important, as he’ll be flanked by two converted infielders with no real experience on the grass.

The Altuve-Smith combo seems to have a good chance of outhitting a corner mix of Ben Gamel and Chas McCormick, which seemed like a possible Opening Day alignment as recently as a few weeks ago. Then again, even the best prospects often struggle when first promoted to the majors, so there are no guarantees Smith will immediately flourish. Still, it’s understandable bet on a higher ceiling.

If Smith does thrive, that would obviously help the club in 2025 but it could also benefit the Astros in another way. The current collective bargaining agreement added measures to discourage service time manipulation. One of those prospect promotion incentives is that clubs can receive an extra draft pick just after the first round under certain conditions. 

If a player is on two of the three top 100 lists from Baseball America, ESPN or MLB.com, they are PPI eligible if their club promotes them early enough in the season to earn a full service year. If such a player wins Rookie of the Year or finish top three in MVP or Cy Young voting in their pre-arbitration years, the club earns an extra pick. Smith is ranked 55th overall at BA, 73rd at ESPN and 59th at MLB.com and is therefore eligible.

Turning to a few other roster decisions for the Astros, Zach Dezenzo will get a bench spot but Cooper Hummel will not, per Ari Alexander of KPRC 2. Hummel is out of options, so he should be designated for assignment or traded in the coming days.

Hummel has an awful .159/.255/.275 batting line in the majors but has been much better in the minors and has interesting defensive versatility. He has a .285/.419/.480 line over the past four minor league seasons and hit .316/.435/.447 in camp this year. Defensively, he’s an option at all four corner spots. He didn’t play behind the plate in 2024 but did in previous seasons. That could make him attractive to other clubs but he cleared waivers in April of 2024 when he still had an option remaining.

One final bench spot will come down to Brendan Rodgers or Zack Short, manager Joe Espada tells Rome. Both players were signed to minor league deals, so that will be another 40-man spot the team will need to open. But as mentioned, they have lots of 60-day IL candidates and should be fine there.