Lawrence Butler Has Not Built Off Last Season’s Breakout

The Athletics started to catch the eyes of general fans last season when a few of their young players started to click, especially in the second half. JJ Bleday, Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom, and Shea Langeliers started to establish themselves as household names.

However, no one caught the national stage like Lawrence Butler.

Butler came with a certain moxie and power stroke that played bigger than what we were used to seeing from A’s of recent memory. A swagger with skills to match.

The then 23-year-old had flipped his poor, albeit short, debut in 2023 around in year two, slashing .262/.317/.490 with 22 home runs and a 130 wRC+.

Butler was poised to be a key part of the Athletics future and flashed star qualities that ultimately landed him a seven-year, $65.5 million pre-arbitration deal. A deal that showed how much the organization believed in Butler as a foundation piece moving forward.

While that belief was justified, Butler has taken a step back this season raising the question if he is truly the player we saw last season.

2025 Struggles

Before I go any further I must say that Butler has not cratered. Through 129 games he’s slashed .229/.301/.400 with 17 home runs and a 92 WRC+. Far from what I, and many others, expected but not so bad that you wonder if he can ever reach heights from 2024.

The root of Butler’s struggle lies in his swing and miss issues. A problem that followed him through the minor leagues and always hurt his prospect stock. He showed major improvements in parts of the prior two seasons, but has reverted to a 28.7% strikeout rate, five percent higher than he posted last season.

Strikeouts were still a problem in his breakout year but not to this magnitude. Butler saw his whiff rate rise from 26.9% to 33.4% which ranks near the bottom of the league. Against breaking balls he’s nearly doubled his whiff rate to 41.9% while also making less impact when he does make contact.

Pitchers have learned that leaning less on their fastball is the best way to attack Butler. He’s seeing five percent fewer fastballs than last season, which has dampened his power and seen him put fewer balls in play. Righties have fed him a higher dose of changeups, a pitch he has only hit to a .165 clip.

A player like Butler will always have some swing and miss to his game and that’s okay. However, it puts an emphasis on him taking advantage of fastballs and mistake pitches and if you are not doing that at a high level you can see production fall off quickly.

A player as young and inexperienced as Butler could lose confidence when times get tough. Pressing and trying to live up to his contract and expectations and struggling to do so is fairly common in this sport. Second guessing and not playing naturally or trusting your instincts can lead to troubles and I think we are seeing just that.

Not a bulletproof theory, but Butler’s bat speed has dropped by 0.5 mph, although I do not read too much into. What I do read into is how often he his getting swings off a 75 mph (bat speed) or faster, which has dropped by over five percent.

These are often confident swings or situations where you are seeing the ball well and getting your “A” swing off. It might not seem like much, but from a player like Butler, who comes with swing and miss, you cannot afford to see a dip in the areas where you make the most impact.

Perhaps this has more to do with the organizational approach. The A’s have been a team that leans into contact over power more than others, but I find it hard to believe they would change much with a player they were happy enough to give a long-term deal to.

What Does This Mean for Butler’s Future?

I’m sure some fans are worried about Butler no longer living up to contract expectations. I wouldn’t go that far just yet. Butler just turned 25 and still has less than 300 games under his belt. IF you watched him as a prospect, you could see the holes in his game were always going to hold him back to some extent.

What I am saying is Butler is a flawed player. An extremely talented player, but a flawed one. There are going to be up and down seasons with a player who makes poor swing decisions paired with a high whiff rate but enough raw talent to still flash what earned him that contract.

Of course, Butler’s future will come down to how much he can improve on making more contact. That starts with swinging at pitches you can do damage on and less pitches outside of the zone. Oftentimes, this can improve with time on task, so there is still some hope.

The A’s needed to add payroll to their books to avoid penalties, and I’m sure that played into the decision to lock up Butler for seven years. Betting on the young player with tools is usually the right move and I think this could still age well for the A’s and Butler.

You can count on at least 15 home runs and stolen bases a year along with improving defense and an ability to play center. Butler has made strides in the field, especially in right, where he went from a -1 OAA to a +4 OAA in the course of one season. Hopefully Denzel Clarke will man center and allow for Butler to return to right where I think he’ll continue to be a plus defender.

Final Thoughts

We all would have loved to see Butler take another step toward solidifying his stardom and drawing more attention to the A’s exciting young core. While this year has not gone as planned, that avenue still exist. Development is not linear and a sophomore slump is hardly rare in this sport.

Butler has his work cut out for him. There’s no doubt where he needs to focus his work over this last month of the season and through out the winter. What is important is learning from what has gone wrong and working to correct it before you see it snowball.

The Athletics have a collection of bats that truly gives them hope heading into the future. Regardless of how this year pans out, I think Butler is still a large part of what will ultimately make them success.