
Aaron Nola and Tyler Glasnow did their jobs on Monday night to cash our first Look of the Day this week, and we're going right back to the diamond for our second selection. Let's target a red-hot hitter with our favorite MLB prop for Tuesday's slate.
Orioles at Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. ET
No hitter in MLB has been hotter than Guerrero since the All-Star break. The Toronto Blue Jays slugger is batting .492 with a 1.608 OPS, eight home runs, 18 runs and 17 RBIs in his last 70 plate appearances. He also has a 50.9 percent hard-hit rate since the break. Those are video game numbers.
This is also a great matchup with Grayson Rodriguez on the mound for the Baltimore Orioles. In 15 career plate appearances against the right-hander, Guerrero is batting .357 and slugging .643 with a double and a home run. Rodriguez throws his 4-seam fastball 46.4 percent of the time, while Guerrero is batting .321 with a .528 xSLG and a 60.7 percent hard-hit rate against 4-seamers this season.
This is a lot of juice to pay, but we think Guerrero is more likely to clear this line than the 59.2 percent implied odds suggest. In 16 games since the All-Star break, the first baseman has gone over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in 13 of them (81.3 percent). We like him to do so again in a friendly matchup.
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