Looking at the Blue Jays’ clinching scenarios

To match the Yankees if they win out, the Jays would have to go 6-3 to get the tiebreaker to kick in. The Jays play three games against the Royals, Red Sox, and Rays, the latter two at home. As easy as the Yankees’ schedule is, baseball isn’t played on paper, and good teams lose to bad teams all the time. Over the coming nine-game stretch, a 7-2 record is realistic for the Yankees, giving them 93 wins. To match, the Blue Jays would need to go 4-5 to win the division.

As it stands, Fangraphs gives the Blue Jays a 90.6% chance of winning the division, as well as a 90.5% chance to clinch a bye.

What needs to happen for the Jays to finish with the best record in the American League

To clinch a bye, the Blue Jays will need to finish first in the division and have one of the two best records. Even though the Yankees’ 86-67 record is the second-best in the American League, they wouldn’t get a bye unless they overtake the Blue Jays.

The good thing about a bye is that if the Jays are to get one, they don’t have to play in the best-of-three Wild Card Series, where they’ve lost six consecutive games dating back to 2020. What’s even better is that the Jays have a realistic chance of finishing with the best record in the American League, meaning guaranteed home-field advantage until the World Series.

So what has to happen for the Blue Jays to clinch the best record in the AL? Well, if they finished 6-3 or better, they automatically clinch the best record as the only other team that can get to 95 wins is the Yankees, and the Jays have the tiebreaker.

If the Jays were to go 5-4, the only team that could catch them is the Yankees, who’d have to go 9-0 to surpass them. A 4-5 record would open the door for the Tigers and Astros, who’d each have to win their last remaining nine games to surpass the Jays. It’s worth noting that the Astros are one of just two teams the Jays don’t have a tiebreaker over.

What would cause the Blue Jays some issues is a 3-6 record or below. If they were to go 3-6, the Yankees would have to go 7-2, the Tigers and Astros would have to go 8-1, and the Mariners would have to go 9-0 to catch them.

A 2-7 record over their last nine games would essentially gift the Yankees the division, as they’d have to go just 6-3 over their last nine, where they play the Orioles six times and the White Sox three times. Moreover, a 2-7 record opens a possibility for the Red Sox and Guardians to surpass the Jays. Both teams would have to win out; Boston has nine games, while Cleveland has 10 games.

If the worst-case 0-9 record happens, the Yankees would have to go 4-5, Tigers and Astros 5-4, Mariners 6-3, Red Sox 7-2, and the Guardians 8-2 to surpass the Jays.

Simply put, if any American League team is going to catch the Blue Jays, it would be the Yankees. But it’d require the Jays to have a monumental collapse and the Yankees to go on an impressive streak.