Lucas Giolito Likely To Make Padres Debut This Weekend

A Padres team that’s been piecing together its rotation over the course of the season thus far is on the verge of getting some much-needed starting pitching help. Lucas Giolito is expected to make his team debut this weekend, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

The 31-year-old Giolito went unsigned all winter and eventually inked a one-year deal with the Friars last month. It contains just a $3MM base salary but an additional $5MM worth of incentives. Giolito has made four minor league starts as he ramps up after missing spring training. The results have been a bit shaky overall, though some early rust is to be expected. He’s tossed 17 innings with a 4.76 ERA, 19.5% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate. Giolito’s most recent start was his best; he went six innings and allowed one run on three hits and no walks against the Athletics’ Double-A affiliate.

While Giolito’s debut is a welcome boost to the San Diego staff, it’ll also force the Padres into a decision. The Friars’ pitching staff lacks flexibility in the way optionable arms. None of the five starters currently on the roster can be optioned. Moving a starter to the ‘pen isn’t all that easy, either. The only San Diego relievers with minor league options are Mason Miller (spoiler: he’s not going anywhere), Jeremiah Estrada and Bradgley Rodriguez. Estrada missed some time with an elbow injury but has a 3.97 ERA in 11 1/3 innings since being activated. He’s also been one of the team’s top relievers dating back to 2024. Rodriguez has a sparkling 1.74 ERA in 20 2/3 frames.

The likeliest scenario would see righty Matt Waldron bumped from the roster. The 29-year-old knuckleballer opened the season on the injured list and has been hit hard since his return. In five appearances (three starts) he’s pitched 21 1/3 innings and been tagged for 22 runs (9.28 ERA) on 32 hits and seven walks. He’s set down 18 of his 103 opponents (17.5%) on strikes. Waldron has a better track record, having pitched 188 innings with a below-average but far more palatable 4.79 ERA in 2023-24.

Manager Craig Stammen called it “early” to talk about a potential DFA of Waldron when asked by Acee. Waldron himself seemed to acknowledge the writing on the wall, however, telling the Union-Tribune: “Safe to say my ERA and my numbers aren’t too attractive right now. And I have no options, so I mean, yeah, that’s where I’ll leave it. I’m smart enough (to know).”

The Padres would surely prefer to preserve as much depth as possible, and Waldron looked to be getting on track in his two starts prior to last night’s six-run, 2 2/3-inning clunker. Between his April 29 and May 5 starts, he pitched 10 innings and held the Cubs and Giants to a combined four runs on eight hits and a walk with eight punchouts.

That said, the Padres aren’t going to jettison Griffin Canning after two starts. Walker Buehler‘s 5.20 ERA isn’t pretty, but his rate stats are solid enough to give him a more appealing 3.64 FIP and 4.05 SIERA. Michael King and breakout righty Randy Vásquez are clearly locked into spots. Relievers Yuki Matsui, Wandy Peralta and Ron Marinaccio can’t be optioned but have all pitched well. It’s always possible an injury arises that kicks the decision down the road a bit, but as things stand, Waldron looks like the odd man out.