Luis Arráez On the Decline: What it Means for the Padres

Luis Arráez is seemingly on the decline, in the middle of the worst season of his career. He is currently compiling career lows in batting average, on-base percentage, OPS, OPS+, and WAR. He’s looking far removed from his three straight All-Star years earlier in the decade. What does this mean for the San Diego Padres as they are locked in a heated race for control of the NL West?

Luis Arráez is on the Decline. Can He Turn It Around?

Arráez’s Recent Seasons

From 2021-2023, Arráez averaged 3.967 WAR. He made three straight All-Star teams, had three top-20 MVP finishes, and was widely regarded as the best contact hitter in the league. Since then, he posted a 1.0 WAR season where he was middling at best and is in the middle of posting the first negative WAR season of his career. He’s averaging career lows in every major statistic, leading to the aforementioned low WAR total.

If you dig into the underlying stats, the reason this is happening is that Arráez is chasing more than ever before. His walk rate is super down from his peak due to a higher chase rate. As a result, his OBP is down almost 50 points from his peak years in 2021-2023. He currently has a 98 OPS+, meaning he is 2% worse at the plate than the average hitter. This is especially bad for Arráez because he’s also a below-average defender and doesn’t have a meaningful baserunning game. This means his entire value comes from his offense, and he’s having a below-average offensive season.

Now, there is some good news. His BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is down 60 points from his career average. This indicates that he has been getting unlucky to some degree this season and is due for some positive regression to the mean. However, his increased weak contact due to lowered walk rate also has something to do with this and it is unlikely he will return to his 2021-2023 highs without some serious changes in the way he approaches the game.