MacKenzie Gore’s Fall-Off Spells Bad News for Nationals

That Gore would eventually become the ace of an MLB team wasn’t entirely unexpected, considering his former top prospect status. That it was with the Nationals instead of his original drafting team took a trade of epic proportions.

Gore was taken third overall in a 2017 draft that featured a bunch of future MLB talent. Hunter Greene, Trevor Rogers, David Peterson, and Brent Rooker are just a few players from that class who have All-Star nods to their name.

It wouldn’t be long before Gore would become a highly-regarded prospect for the Padres. With Fernando Tatis Jr. atop San Diego’s top prospect lists, Gore was right behind him until the former debuted and became an MLB superstar.

Gore would cruise through the Padres’ minor league system. In 60 starts, he’d compile a 2.91 ERA, .214 batting average against, and an 11.5 K/9. He looked like a future star.

That’s why, when the subject of Padres trades came up, Gore was largely considered untouchable. Only a trade that makes the term blockbuster seem inadequate would have had a remote chance of prying him away from San Diego.

And then just that type of trade happened. In 2022, with generational talent Juan Soto on the block for the Nationals, the two teams struck a deal. Gore and five other talented young players were headed to Washington for Soto and infielder Josh Bell.

Gore would begin his tenure as a Nationals starting pitcher the following season. Two decent seasons would provide hope for what could be before 2025 would start to prove those hopes justified.

The 26-year-old would look like the ace that Nationals fans had hoped for to start the season. By the All-Star break, he’d have a 3.02 ERA, a .236 average against, and 11.26 K/9 with a 3.1 fWAR that ranked eighth among MLB starters. He’d be named to the All-Star Game, which surprised few.

It sure seemed like the Nationals finally had their future ace. That was, until the second half of the season put everything back in doubt.

Gore’s Post-All-Star Struggles

Gore’s first rough post-All-Star outing came right out of the break. In a game against the A’s, he would last just 2.1 innings, giving up eight earned runs on eight hits (two of them homers) and three walks with just two strikeouts.

He would give up six or more earned runs in two of the next three games after that. His ERA elevated nearly a run and a half up to 4.29 over that span, and his average against rose to .263.

Then, in a start on August 26 in which he gave up three earned runs over five innings against the Yankees, he felt discomfort in his shoulder. A few days later, he was placed on the IL.

Gore returned from the IL and started three more games, looking solid in the first two before running into trouble again in the third. He has now landed back on the injured list with an ankle injury.

So, he will finish the second half with a 6.75 ERA and a .281 opponents’ average in 11 starts. His underlying stats suggest he wasn’t quite as bad as his ERA implies, and his full-season numbers are still pretty good. Yet, the Nationals don’t just need Gore to be good. They need him to be great.

It’s rare that a team with playoff aspirations is able to meet them without having a clear ace on the staff. Even the Nationals themselves, back when they won the 2019 World Series, were led by a future Hall of Famer in Max Scherzer, not to mention former first overall pick Stephen Strasburg.

The proof is in the pudding with this year’s playoff hopefuls. Of the 12 teams currently in playoff position, it’s only the Mets who don’t have a starter in the top 25 in MLB in ERA. (And they have rookie sensation Nolan McLean leading their rotation.)

The Nationals need an ace around whom to build their starting rotation, and Gore has the talent to be that guy. But unless he can put together a consistently great season, it’ll continue to be bad news for the Washington faithful.