New York Mets right fielder Juan Soto Lucas Boland-Imagn Images

Mets' Juan Soto Receives Underwhelming 2026 Prediction

Originally posted on New York Mets on SI | By Grant Young | Last updated Mar 6, 2026 5:00 PM ET

The baseball world expected Juan Soto to perform at the plate for the New York Mets last season.

After all, that's why he was given a 15-year, $765 million contract by New York, which amounted to the biggest contract in sports history. And Soto did indeed perform at the dish, as shown by his impressive .263 average with a .921 OPS, 43 home runs, and 105 RBIs during the Mets' regular season.

What's perhaps most impressive about these numbers is that Soto was ice-cold (relative to what he usually does) at the plate for the first two months of the season. If he was hitting in April and May like he did for the rest of the season, there's a real chance that Soto could have beaten out Shohei Ohtani for the 2025 NL MVP Award.

What nobody expected from Soto was his staggering stolen base success. The 27-year-old stole 38 bases during the 2025 campaign, which is more than three times what he had ever stolen in a season before that point (he had stolen 12 bases in two individual seasons).

Soto emerging as a true 40-40 threat was not on anybody's bingo cards last year. It is this year, though, which might make it tougher for Soto to sneak so many stolen bases into his stat line.

Not to mention that Antoan Richardson, whom Soto credits for his success on the base paths last season, left the franchise for the Atlanta Braves.

ESPN Turns Heads With Juan Soto Prediction

Given these factors, it's likely hard to imagine that Soto is going to surpass his stolen base total during the 2026 season.

This seemed to be the basis of a "bold prediction" that ESPN's Eric Karabell wrote in a March 6 article, where he said, "Juan Soto steals 24 bases."

For what it's worth, Soto stealing 24 bases would still be twice as many as he has stolen in a season aside from last year, so that would still be a solid number.

Soto's stolen base attempts will also depend on where he lands in the Mets' lineup. If he's in the second slot, he'll likely take more chances than if he's hitting third in the order.

What's for sure is that Mets fans can expect Soto to be on base a whole lot, and he clearly learned a lot from Richardson in the art of swiping bags last year.

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This article first appeared on New York Mets on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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