Jul 30, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; New York Mets manager Carlos Mendoza (64) watches play during the seventh inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. David Frerker-Imagn Images

Mets' odds of winning NL East dramatically decrease since All-Star Break

Originally posted on New York Mets on SI
By Nick Ziegler | Last updated Aug 19, 2025 11:00 AM ET

The New York Mets are getting set for an important series against the Washington Nationals with a chance to gain some ground in the National League East.

It has been no secret that the Mets have been struggling of late. Before an important weekend series win against the Seattle Mariners, New York was in quite a rut. The starting rotation has been an issue for a while, and new additions to the bullpen haven't worked out; furthermore, despite a lot of talent in the lineup, that unit was struggling as well.

The Mets were able to start the season with one of the best records in the league, and it seemed like they were destined to make the postseason. However, they have been a mediocre team for quite some time now.

Fortunately, that early success has kept them in the playoff picture to this point, as they currently hold the third and final Wild Card spot in the NL. Nonetheless, they need to turn things around soon. With a series against the last-place Nationals, the time to make a run is now.

Free Falling

Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com recently wrote about the Mets being the biggest faller in the NL East since the All-Star break. Over that span, the Mets have gone from 41.9 percent to 19.7 percent to win the division.

This is quite a drastic drop for New York in about a month of play. Unfortunately, a lot of the reason for their drop has been their own doing. The Mets have won just four of their last 18 games, and the Philadelphia Phillies have capitalized by stretching their division lead to 5.5 games entering Tuesday's action.

Even though both teams were aggressive at the trade deadline, it has been the move to acquire Jhoan Duran by the Phillies that has been the most significant difference maker. However, Philadelphia does have a looming concern with their ace, Zack Wheeler, being on the injured list with a blood clot in his shoulder.

Is there a window of opportunity?

With no timetable for his return, that could be a significant blow for the Phillies down the stretch. This could be the opportunity that the Mets need to flip the division around, but they will have to act quickly.

Philadelphia has been able to establish a sizeable lead now in the division, and the Mets are running out of games. Fortunately, New York did show some signs of life with their recent series win against the Mariners. The starting rotation was much better in that series, and that will have to continue.

Even though the percentages to win the division don’t look great as of now, there is still time and reason to believe the Mets can turn it around.

This article first appeared on New York Mets on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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