Mets vs. Dodgers prediction, pick, odds for NLCS Game 1 on Sunday, Oct. 13

Mets vs. Dodgers Game 1 Projected Starting Pitchers

BJ Cunningham’s Mets vs. Dodgers Preview

New York Mets Betting Preview: How Long Can Senga Last?

Kodai Senga made just one start during the regular season but was surprisingly handed the ball in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Phillies.

He only pitched two innings, striking out three batters and gave up a leadoff home run to Kyle Schwarber. The velocity on his fastball was down almost a full tick from last season, which is a bit of a concern — I don’t think we will see him for very long in this game.

David Peterson relieved him in Game 1 and pitched innings 3-5, holding the Phillies scoreless while only giving up one hit. Peterson was drastically overperforming his expected metrics for the first half of the season, but he’s been really good since the All-Star break, posting a 3.84 xFIP.

He’s dominant against left-handed hitters, allowing .259 wOBA to them this season, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes in for Ohtani’s second at-bat with three of the Dodgers’ top-five hitters all being lefties.

The Mets offense has come up big in timely situations all postseason. Mark Vientos has been on fire with 12 hits — two of them being home runs.

Over two playoff series, the Mets have a collective 104 wRC+ and will have a good matchup in Game 1 against Jack Flaherty, given how much success they’ve had against right-handed pitching this season.

Flaherty is much worse against righties than he is against lefties, which works well for the Mets, who can stack seven right-handed bats in their lineup.

The Mets bullpen has been hit or miss throughout the playoffs (and down the stretch of the regular season), with command issues plaguing them.

Over the last 30 days of the regular season, they had the second-worst Location+ rating and were also in the bottom 10 in walk rate. Those control issues have continued into the playoffs as the Mets bullpen has a 4.74 BB/9 through seven games.

Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Flaherty Wearing Down

Jack Flaherty got roughed up in Game 2 against the Padres and down the stretch of the regular season — it’s very clear that he’s not the same pitcher that he was in Detroit.

He’s battled injuries for the last couple of years and after pitching an entire season, he’s starting to wear down.

His velocity has taken a dip by almost a full mph on both his fastball and slider in September. His velocity returned to normal in Game 2, but there is clear trend that he’s continually gotten worse over the course the season.

This will be a similarly bad matchup for him because the Mets have a pretty similar offense to the Padres in the fact that they are one of the five best offenses against right-handed pitching.

Not only that, the Mets are in the top 10 in xwOBA against both right-handed fastballs and sliders, so I think we will see Flaherty have similar struggles reminiscent of Game 2 of the NLDS.

What has been working for the Dodgers during the playoffs is their bullpen.

They went with a full bullpen game in Game 4 and were able to pitch a shutout. They then called on their bullpen for the final four innings in Game 5, and they didn’t even allow any Padres into scoring position.

Flaherty was given a longer leash to work out of jams in his previous start, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dodgers manager Dave Roberts call on his bullpen early again, especially following an off-day on Saturday.

The Dodgers’ bats went pretty quiet in Game 5 despite home runs from Enrique and Teoscar Hernandez. In their series against the Padres, the Dodgers only had a .296 wOBA and 91 wRC+, and the top of the order has really struggled.

Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman went a combined 12-for-52 with only four extra-base hits over the five-game series. They have to improve; otherwise, it will swing the door wide open for the Mets.

Mets vs. Dodgers Prediction, NLCS Betting Analysis

The Mets opened at around +140 and now have been bet down into the +130 range, which takes away any of the value on them on the moneyline. Even if there were value on them, their erratic bullpen is always a cause for concern, so I would rather target their offense in this game.

In addition to that, the combination of Kodai Senga and David Peterson worked in Game 1 of the NLDS, but both of them are far too inconsistent to trust against one of the best lineups in baseball.

The Mets have a very similar offense to that of the Padres in the fact that they crush fastballs and sliders, which is what Flaherty is throwing over 65% of the time.

The ability of the Mets to stack seven right-handed hitters against Flaherty is going to be huge. In the month of September, Flaherty allowed a .343 xwOBA and 43% hard-hit right rate to right-handed hitters.

I have the Mets projected for 4.1 runs in this game, so I like the value on their team total of Over 3.5 runs at -110.

Pick: Mets Team Total Over 3.5 (-110 via ESPN Bet) 

Moneyline

There’s definitely some value in the moneyline. If Flaherty performs the way I anticipate, the Mets at plus money is a solid option.

Pick: Lean Mets

Run Line (Spread)

Like most baseball games, the run line is listed at 1.5. I don’t see a ton of value in either direction though.

Pick: Pass

Over/Under

The Over/Under is set at 8.5, and if I’m projecting the Mets to score more than 3.5 runs, the Dodgers most likely will have to do their part as well. Hard to tell if that happens given how well New York’s pitching has fared.

Pick: Pass

Mets Betting Trends

• The Mets are 5-2 in the playoffs.
• The Mets are 5-0 against the spread in the past five games.
• The Mets have a 43-38 record on the road.
• The Mets are 28-35 when listed as the underdog.

Dodgers Betting Trends

• The Dodgers are 3-2 in their past five games.
• The Dodgers are 4-1 against the spread in the past five games.
• The Dodgers have a 52-28 record at home.
• The Dodgers are 91-50 when listed as a favorite.