Mets vs. Dodgers prediction, pick, odds for NLCS Game 6 on Sunday, Oct. 20

Mets vs. Dodgers Game 6 Probable Pitchers

Brad Cunningham’s Mets vs Dodgers Game 6 Preview

New York Mets Betting Preview: Can Manaea Do it Again?

Sean Manaea will take the mound again for the Mets after surging toward the end of the regular season. He had his struggles over the first half with an xFIP of 4.29, but since the All-Star Break, he’s down to only 3.75.

The biggest change — by far — has been his command. He’s lowered his walk rate from 10% to 6.8% and his Location+ rating has gone from 96 to 99. The other big change has been his sinker, which he throws more often — the Stuff+ rating on it has increased from 89 in the first half of the season to 104 in the second half.

That is because Manaea changed his arm angle to more of a side arm, which allowed him to be much more effective by having a low vertical approach angle to make his sinker more deceptive when he throws it up in the zone.

He was incredibly effective with it against the Dodgers in Game 2, when he threw 57 sinkers and only allowed four hard hits all game. It also set up his sweeper, which was virtually untouchable all game long.

The question is how long does Manaea last in this game? He was allowed to face the order a third time through in Game 2 because the Mets had to use a lot of pitchers in Game 1 and he was pitching with a big lead.

That decision kind of backfired because he ended up loading the bases. His numbers when seeing the order for the third time through this season also aren’t that great.

Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview: Another Bullpen Game for L.A.

Because the Dodgers are limited with starting pitchers due to a plethora of injuries, manager Dave Roberts is stuck and is likely going to have to go with a full bullpen game. Ryan Brasier got the start in Game 2 and gave up one run, but it was Landon Knack who got hammered in the second inning for five runs.

With both teams having a day off on Saturday, I think it will an all-hands-on-deck situation for the Dodgers bullpen.

When their bullpen game was successful in NLDS Game 4 against the Padres, it was because Roberts used some of his best relievers — like Anthony Banda, Alex Vesia, Michael Kopech and Evan Phillips — early on in the game rather than going to someone like Knack or Brent Honeywell. Because their bullpen is rested, I think the plan will be to go to their best relievers first instead of trying to save them for later in the game.

Manaea’s arm angle really fooled the Dodgers in Game 2, especially Shohei Ohtani. He struck him out twice and got him to pop up in his third at bat.

With three of the Dodgers’ top-five hitters being lefties, it gives Manaea good matchups every time he sees the top of the order. The first two time through the order, the Dodgers didn’t really do anything against him, but once they got to see him for a third time, they loaded up the bases.

While the Dodgers have hit the Mets bullpen pretty well throughout the series, it’s really only been against a lot of the guys in the back end, or starters-turned-relievers like Tylor Megill and David Peterson.

Edwin Diaz, Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton have only given up a total of two runs throughout this series, and with this being an elimination game, the Mets will without a doubt go to their best relievers first.

Mets vs. Dodgers Prediction, Game 6 Betting Analysis

With an off-day on Saturday, the Mets bullpen is rested up and could have everyone available. You may even see Kodai Senga in this game, as I find it really hard to believe that Manaea will see the Dodgers’ order the third time through after he loaded the bases in the sixth inning of Game 2.

The Dodgers’ bullpen game didn’t work in Game 2 because Landon Knack got shelled in the second inning. I think you will see the Dodgers deploy more of the plan they had against the Padres and use their best relievers first to give themselves the best possible matchups against a Mets offense that has hit all of the Dodgers starters pretty well in this series outside of Game 1.

The Mets bullpen has given up a lot of runs during this series, but three of their main relievers have been really good. Manager Carlos Mendoza will have a decision to make with how he handles Manaea, but in any case, the Mets will try to put themselves in the best possible matchups against the Dodgers offense.

Even though Manaea has been given a long leash throughout the playoffs, I don’t think Mendoza will make the same mistake from Game 2 when he let the left-hander see the sixth inning. I like the value on Manaea Under 15.5 outs at -135.

Pick: Sean Manaea Under 15.5 Outs (-135 via DraftKings) 

Moneyline

The Dodgers are -148 favorites and the Mets are +124 underdogs. I have no play for either side of the moneyline.

Pick: Pass

Run Line (Spread)

Like the moneyline, I am not on either side of the run line.

Pick: Pass

Over/Under

The over/under opened at 8.5 total runs. There are now some 8s available at various sportsbooks, however.

Pick: Pass

Mets vs Dodgers Betting Trends

• 88% of the bets and 90% of the money is on the Dodgers moneyline
• 89% of bets and 75% of the money is on the total to go over (8.5)
• 97% of bets and 99% of the money is on the Dodgers to cover the run line (-1.5)

Mets Trends

• Mets starting pitchers have allowed a slugging percentage of just .246 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .396
• Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 37% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%
• The Mets are 7-5 ATS during the postseason

Dodgers Betting Trends

• The Dodgers pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.1 MPH this season (196 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
• Dodgers relief pitchers have allowed a slugging percentage of just .234 on pitches in the strike zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .416
• The Dodgers are 7-3 ATS during the postseason
• 8-of-10 Dodgers playoff games have gone over the total — one of the games that didn’t was a push