Milwaukee Brewers: Christian Yelich Will Breakout Soon According to Advanced Stats

Yelich has several more years left on his contract with the Brewers, but his 2020-2022 seasons, especially, remain some of the greatest “what if” questions in recent memory among fans. He, of course, won the NL MVP Award in his first season in Milwaukee in 2018 hitting .326/.402/.598 with 36 home runs and 110 RBI.

In 2019, Yelich was even better. Going into the final month of the season, he was hitting .329/.429/.671 with 44 home runs and 97 RBI (and 30 stolen bases) and appeared poised to win the MVP Award again.

But then he fractured his knee cap after fouling a ball off of it, ending his season. And it took him a long time to get back to hitting with the results fans had come to expect. From 2020-2022, he hit .254/.362/.407 while averaging 14 home runs and 52 RBI per season.

He was much better in 2023, hitting .278/.370/.447 with 19 home runs, 76 RBI, and 28 stolen bases. It was his best year since 2019.

And in 2024, he was voted to the All-Star Game for the first time (his third appearance overall), and hit .315/.406/.504 with 11 home runs, 42 RBI, and 21 stolen bases heading into the final two months of the season.

But a nagging back injury required season-ending surgery, and his year was over.

Milwaukee Brewers Designated Hitter Christian Yelich Wants to Participate in the Home Run Derby

While he may be off to a slow start this season, it is important to recall that Yelich hit .353/.389/.735 with three home runs and 11 RBI in Spring Training. While the results have not yet come in the regular season, it is also good to note that he is feeling healthy and that it is still very early in the year.

To be sure, his current .125/.282/.219 slash line does not look good at all. However, some advanced metrics show that the Brewers designated hitter is close to breaking out.

From 2021-2024, Yelich had a .336 BAbip (batting average on balls in play). Right now, his BAbip is .150. Now, while this may sound concerning at its face, it is also interesting to note that his hard-hit percentage (balls hit with exit velocities of 95 mph or more) is 55.0%. In 2018, when he won MVP, his hard-hit percentage was 54.8%. In 2019, it was 52.8%.

Furthermore, Yelich’s average exit velocity right now is 93.2 mph. In 2018, it was 93.1, and in 2019 it was 94.1.

The main problem right now, aside from bad luck on balls put in play, is the strikeout percentage. Currently, Yelich has struck out in 28.2% of his at bats. If this were May or June, it would be cause for concern. But it is early April.

The fact of the matter is that Yelich has proven that he can break out of in-season slumps, and this will not be any different. Best of all, the advanced metrics indicate that when he does start striking out less, his production will be back at an All-Star level.