Milwaukee Brewers: Does Chad Patrick Have Better Shot at Rookie of the Year Than 10-1 Odds Predict?

Baldwin is the frontrunner across the board. In 40 games for Atlanta, the Madison, Wisconsin native is batting .308 with an .821 OPS, seven homeruns and 18 RBI. He also grades out above average defensively.

Over in Miami, Ramirez has demonstrated impressive power, homering eight times in 150 at bats, but not a whole lot else.

Shaw can draw walks, steal bases and play good defense, but optically speaking he also has a fairly unconvincing profile despite his high value.

Kim arrived late to the party, joining the Dodgers in early May, but he has slashed his way into the race with a .994 OPS and five steals. Even assuming that his .409 batting average is unsustainable, he looks primed to move up on the list before season’s end.

Milwaukee Brewers’ Patrick Leads Field in Player Value Stat

From an absolute value standpoint, Patrick actually headlines the group, posting 1.6 Wins Above Replacement so far. Baldwin and Shaw are next at 1.2; Kim’s scorching start has racked up 0.9 in 52 at bats.

Despite the picture painted by the betting market, neither Ramirez, listed second-likeliest to win, nor Shaw, who is third, has a player profile traditionally valued by ROY voters. Most of the time, winners boast at least some semblance of an offensive game. Shaw has a weak case in this area (one homerun, .692). Defensive specialists do not tend to fare well in the voting if other options exist.

Defense does matter, though, and Ramirez, who has split time behind the plate and at designated hitter, does not grade out well. His 0.2 WAR ranks last among the top five candidates. WAR is hardly an end-all be-all stat when it comes to award voting, but it is gaining favor as a metric and is certainly a helpful baseline.

Right now, Patrick’s main competition looks to be Baldwin and Kim. Listed between +155 and +225 to win, Baldwin will almost certainly triumph if he keeps up his current pace or something close to it. Kim (+1500) needs to accrue some playing time before he has a comparable sample size off which to judge his candidacy.

As for Patrick, his main claim to fame is consistency – in none of his 13 starts has he allowed over three earned runs. If he continues plugging away, it is hard not to see him among the trio of finalists to be announced in November.