MLB best bets 10/18

It won't be easy for Friday's MLB playoff action to match what we witnessed on Thursday night, but you never know in October. With another doubleheader of ALCS and NLCS action on deck, let's take a look at our three favorite bets for the slate. 

Los Angeles Dodgers moneyline (-130 BetMGM)

The New York Mets magic seems to have come to an end. After earning a 1-1 split in Los Angeles, the Mets returned to Queens and have been outscored 18-2 through two games. In comes Jack Flaherty, who shut down the Mets in Game 1 with just two hits allowed, no earned runs and six strikeouts in 7.0 innings.

This is a tough matchup for New York because this is an aggressive lineup, and Flaherty ranks in the 91st percentile in whiff rate and the 72nd percentile in chase rate this season. On the other side, current Dodgers hitters are batting .343 with a .419 xwOBA and a .620 xSLG against Mets starter David Peterson. 

Max Muncy over 0.5 hits + runs + RBIs (-180 DraftKings)

This is a lot of juice to swallow on an MLB prop, but we think this price should be closer to -250. Muncy has been an on-base machine in the playoffs, especially in this series. The Dodgers first baseman is 5-10 with eight walks, four RBIs and three runs scored in four games against the Mets. He's getting on base nearly every time he steps to the plate, and with how hot this Los Angeles lineup is, that gives Muncy a great chance to at least score a run in Game 5. 

Muncy has faced Peterson only five times in his career, but he has a home run and a single against the left-hander. 

Luis Gil under 13.5 outs recorded (-125 DK)

Fading Gil on Friday night sounds like a great idea. The New York Yankees rookie is making his first career playoff start on the road in a loud, pressure-packed environment, and we don't think he has the skill set to handle it. 

Gil's biggest issue all season has been his control issues. The right-hander ranks in the seventh percentile in walk rate (12.1 percent), and he walked six batters in his lone start against the Cleveland Guardians this season. Gil hasn't pitched in the postseason yet because he walked 3.0 batters per start in his last nine regular-season appearances. If the pressure gets to him and walks start piling up early, Aaron Boone will be quick to go to his bullpen.