MLB best bets and Saturday moneyline picks for Sept. 14

Tony Sartori's Royals vs. Pirates Best Bet: Advantage Lies on the Mound

Saturday, Sept. 14

1:05 p.m. ET

MLB Network

Pirates ML (-110 | Play to -115, DraftKings)

By Tony Sartori

The Kansas City Royals hand the ball to right-hander Michael Wacha on Saturday, and he is a prime regression candidate. Despite posting a 3.34 ERA through 26 starts this season, Wacha owns a 4.22 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, strikeout rate and barrel rate.

This expected regression is likely to come to fruition against the Pittsburgh Pirates, a team that Wacha possesses a 4.60 ERA against over the past 12 meetings. Meanwhile, right-hander Mitch Keller takes the mound for Pittsburgh.

Keller outranks Wacha in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, walk rate and barrel rate. Entering this matchup in particularly good form, the right-hander has surrendered three or fewer earned runs in each of his past four starts.

He boasts a 3.22 ERA over that stretch. Not only do the Pirates possess the starting pitching advantage, but they own the bullpen advantage as well.

This season, Pittsburgh's relief staff outranks Kansas City's in both FIP and xFIP.

Pick: Pirates ML (-110 | Play to -115)

D.J. James's Braves vs Dodgers Best Bet: Braves Can't Hit Righties

Saturday, Sept. 14

7:20 p.m. ET

MLB Network

Dodgers ML (+110 | Play to -115, DraftKings)

By D.J. James

Chris Sale is the potential Cy Young Award Winner for the National League, and rightly so. He has a sub-3.00 ERA and xERA. His peripherals are off the charts with under an 87 MPH Average Exit Velocity and a Hard-Hit Rate in the 95th percentile. As he was in his prime, he's striking out hitters at an exceptional rate, while not walking any.

Jack Flaherty shouldn't be overlooked, though. He has a 2.86 ERA and 3.24 xERA with an Average Exit Velocity under 88 MPH and an above average Hard-Hit Rate. Additionally, he has excelled in striking out almost 31% of batters, while walking only 5%.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have crushed lefties. They will not necessarily do the same to Sale, but I can see them being more effective than the Atlanta Braves at the dish. Los Angeles has a 122 wRC+, 7.4% walk rate, and 21.6% strikeout rate against lefties in the last month.

Meanwhile, the Braves have an 85 wRC+, 8.1% walk rate, and 21.8% strikeout rate.

Los Angeles’ relief staff has held the team back in the last month. It carries the worst xFIP in baseball, while Atlanta ranks at the top. That said, this should not be the only determinant in this moneyline. Look for Flaherty to pitch deep and reduce strain on the Dodger bullpen.

Bet the Dodgers at +110 to -115, even if they are going up against Sale. The Braves, simply, cannot hit righties at the moment.

Pick: Dodgers ML (+110 | Play to -115)

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