MLB best bets and Thursday predictions for Sept. 19

Tony Sartori's Giants vs. Orioles Best Bet: Back Baltimore

Thursday, Sept. 19

1:05 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Orioles -1.5 (+158, FanDuel)

By Tony Sartori

There are an abundance of advantages that the Baltimore Orioles possess in this matchup, starting with the pitching matchup of Logan Webb versus Zach Eflin. The latter outranks Webb in WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

There is an even bigger disparity between these lineups. Baltimore paces San Francisco in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, home runs and stolen bases.

Finally, the Orioles will play this game on their home diamond, where they possess a win percentage north of 55%. On the other hand, San Francisco's road win percentage hovers south of the 44% mark. Back the Orioles to win by at least two runs and bet this down to +150.

Pick: Orioles -1.5 (+158)

D.J. James's Giants vs Orioles Best Bet: Over/Under Shows Value

Thursday, Sept. 19

1:05 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Under 7.5 (-110, Caesars)

By D.J. James

Logan Webb is an excellent ground-ball pitcher. He has a 3.53 ERA and an xERA above 4.00, but his ground-ball rate ranks in the 95th percentile, which is why he's the ace of the Giants’ staff. Like other ground-ball pitchers, he allows hard contact, but as long as the ball is on the ground, he'll be effective. He is also fewer than seven innings away from 200 on the season. His chase rate is well above average, and he can limit walks.

His opponent will be Zach Eflin and the Baltimore Orioles. Eflin has a 3.55 ERA and a 3.41 xERA. He can also limit hard contact and keep the ball on the ground. Additionally, he excels in getting hitters to chase.

Now, the key here is that both the Giants and Orioles have struggled at the plate against righties. The Giants have a 90 wRC+, a 7.1% walk rate and a 28.1% strikeout rate against righties over the past month.

The Orioles have a 91 wRC+, a 9.6% walk rate and a 23.6% strikeout rate in the past month against righties.

Both bullpens should also be able to pull their weight.

So, bet Under 7.5 and play it down to 7.

Pick: Under 7.5 (-110)

About the Author

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