MLB best bets and Wednesday predictions for Sept. 18

Tony Sartori's Twins vs Guardians Best Bet: Trust the Twins

Wednesday, Sept. 18

6:40 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Twins Moneyline (-104, FanDuel)

By Tony Sartori

The Minnesota Twins possess the clear hitting advantage in this contest. This season, they outrank the Cleveland Guardians in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and home runs.

Minnesota also boasts the pitching advantage as Bailey Ober and Tanner Bibee are slated to start. It's not that Bibee is bad, but Ober outranks him in WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

There are only two reasons why the Guardians are favored in this matchup: Bullpen and home-field.

With that said, the gap in relief pitching is minimal as both teams rank in the top eight of the league in both FIP and xFIP.

The home-field advantage is a slight concern, but not enough for me to back away from Minnesota at -104 after considering all the other variables.

Pick: Twins Moneyline (-104)

D.J. James's Yankees vs Mariners Best Bet: Mariners Moneyline

Wednesday, Sept. 18

9:40 p.m. ET 

MLB.TV

Mariners Moneyline (+106, FanDuel)

By D.J. James

Nestor Cortes has been solid for the New York Yankees. He has a 3.90 ERA and a 3.68 xERA. He doesn't walk many hitters (5.2%), but his peripherals are otherwise underwhelming. He has a ground-ball rate in the third percentile a Hard-Hit Rate in the 11th percentile and an Average Exit Velocity that's nearly 90 mph.

His opponent will be Bryce Miller and the Seattle Mariners on Wednesday. Miller has a 3.12 ERA and a 3.79 xERA. Like Cortes, Miller has an Average Exit Velocity around 90 mph with a below average Hard-Hit Rate. However, his ground-ball rate isn't nearly as low. Miller also boasts a higher strikeout rate and a comparable walk rate.

At the dish, the Yankees have a 98 wRC+, a 9% walk rate and a 23.3% strikeout rate against righties over the past month.

The Mariners have a 110 wRC+, a 12.5% walk rate and a 23.3% strikeout rate against lefties over the past month as they cling to their postseason hopes.

In relief, the Yankees have a 3.49 xFIP, a 9.3% walk rate and a 26.1% strikeout rate in the past month. Seattle owns a 3.62 xFIP, a 9.1% walk rate and a 28.6% strikeout rate in the past month.

Bank on the Mariners to get to Cortes early. Miller has a slight edge and both bullpens are about even. Bet the Mariners on the moneyline at +106 and play them to -120.

Pick: Mariners Moneyline (+106)

About the Author

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