Pictured: Jordan Hicks (Photo by Andy Kuno/San Francisco Giants/Getty Images)

MLB best bets: Cubs vs. Giants odds, pick, prediction for Thu. 6/27

Originally posted on Action Network | By D.J. James | Last updated Jun 26, 2024 11:20 PM ET

Shota Imanaga may finally be experiencing the regression monster. The rookie southpaw was leading the charge in the National League Cy Young Award race, but in his most recent appearance, he allowed 10 earned runs over three innings.

The San Francisco Giants have trounced lefties lately and will throw Jordan Hicks today. Regression will come at some point for Hicks, but he has done an excellent job of keeping the ball out of the air. The Chicago Cubs are also not as strong against right-handers recently.

So, let's dig into the MLB odds and make a Cubs vs. Giants pick.

Cubs vs. Giants Odds

Thursday, June 27, 3:45 p.m ET, MLB Network

Cubs Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-116	7.5 -110/-110	-1.5 +150

Giants Odds
Moneyline	Total	Run Line
-103	7.5 -110/-110	+1.5 -180

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

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Chicago Cubs

There have been indications that's Imanaga's sub-3.00 ERA wouldn't last. Yes, he rarely walks hitters, but his Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 36th percentile and his Average Exit Velocity is 90 mph. His strikeout rate is well above average, but he rarely keeps the ball on the ground. Additionally, the Giants rarely hit the ball on the ground. The New York Mets were on fire when they hammered Imanaga and he's also catching the Giants at a brutal time.

The Cubs have a 96 wRC+, a 9.5% walk rate and a 25.9% strikeout rate against righties in June. They have five active hitters with an xwOBA above .320, but no one above .330. The majority of Chicago's lineup is fine against righties, but no one is one fire.

The Cubs’ bullpen seems to be constantly blowing leads. In June, they have a 4.32 xFIP, a 24.1% strikeout rate and a 14.1% ([) walk rate. Sure, they have a few decent arms in middle relief, but the back-end, lockdown relievers are nonexistent on this club.

San Francisco Giants

Hicks has a 3.24 ERA against a 4.52 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is 90 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate ranks in the 24th percentile. He walks 9.1% of batters, but his ground-ball rate is exceptional (86th percentile). The Cubs have the fourth-highest ground-ball rate against righties in June. They should, essentially, be playing into Hicks’ hands. Additionally, San Francisco is more of a pitcher’s ballpark, so Hicks should have a pretty decent start.

The Giants have been crushing lefties and could do so again Thursday. They have a 150 wRC+ off of lefties with a 12.1% walk rate and a 20.3% strikeout rate in June. Adding on, the Giants have eight bats with a xwOBA over .310 and seven above .320. This lineup is simply more complete than the Cubs', so Imanaga could have another tough outing.

San Francisco’s bullpen has been great in June with a 3.48 xFIP and a sub-8% walk rate.

Cubs vs. Giants

Betting Pick & Prediction

The Cubs just don't match up with San Francisco here. Since the Giants are so much stronger in relief and can hit Imanaga for another poor start, they are incredibly undervalued. Take them from -102 to -130.

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