MLB best bets, picks and predictions for Saturday, Sept. 21

D.J. James's Phillies vs Mets Best Bet: Manaea Can Lead Mets

Saturday, Sept. 21

4:10 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Mets Moneyline (-108, FanDuel)

By D.J. James

Sean Manaea has been incredibly sharp of late, as the New York Mets are making a push for a playoff spot. Manaea has a 3.26 ERA and a 3.73 xERA on the year. He has an Average Exit Velocity under 89 mph and an above average Hard-Hit Rate. His ground-ball rate could use some work, but he is striking out almost 26% of batters and missing bats consistently.

His opponent will be Ranger Suárez and the Philadelphia Phillies. Suárez has a 3.13 ERA and a 3.38 xERA on the season. Unlike Manaea, Suárez won't produce many strikeouts, but can limit walks and hard contact, and keep the ball on the ground.

However, the New York Mets have thrived against lefties, especially in the past month. In that timeframe, the Mets have a 131 wRC+, a 9.8% walk rate and a 18.5% strikeout rate.

The Phillies have a 115 wRC+, a 8.9% walk rate and a 18.6% strikeout rate over the past month against lefties.

In relief, the Mets have a 3.72 xFIP, a 29.2% strikeout rate and a 9.7% walk rate in the past month.

Meanwhile, the Phillies bullpen has a 3.97 xFIP, a 21.5% strikeout rate and a 7.7% walk rate in that timeframe.

The Mets are even when it comes to starting pitching and better in the bullpen and at the plate, so bet the Mets moneyline. Play to New York to -135.

Pick: Mets Moneyline (-108)

Nick Martin's Twins vs Red Sox Best Bet: Trust the Twins

Saturday, Sept. 21

4:10 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Twins Moneyline (-130, Bet365)

By Nick Martin

The Minnesota Twins need to start winning some games or they may end up authoring one of the worst collapses in recent memory. On September 3rd, the Twins had a 95.8% chance of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs. However, they're now flirting with disaster.

Pablo Lopez has done all he can do in the second half, pitching to a 2.01 ERA across 71 2/3 innings. In his past five starts, he's been dominant with a 1.30 ERA, a 2.85 xFIP and a K-BB% of 21.6.

While Lopez has turned his season around after an ugly first half, Kutter Crawford has done the opposite — pitching to a 6.55 ERA since the All-Star Break after a great start to the season. In his past five starts, Crawford has pitched to a 4.13 ERA with a 4.46 xFIP and a K-BB% of 15.5.

Both of these offenses have been flat recently, but a healthy Twins lineup offers more potential and has still been the more productive unit of late. Over the past month, the Twins have hit to a 90 wRC+, while the Red Sox have posted a 76 wRC+. In splits versus right-handed pitchers in that span, Minnesota owns a 90 wRC+, while Boston ranks 29th with a wRC+ of 72.

At anything better than -140, I see value in backing Lopez to lead the Twins to victory as he faces against one of the leagues coldest offenses.

Pick: Twins Moneyline (-130)

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