MLB best bets: Picks and predictions for Wednesday 6/19

Tigers vs. Braves

Wednesday, June 19, 12:20 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Tigers Moneyline +110 (FanDuel)

By Tony Sartori

Any opportunity I see plus-money on Tarik Skubal, I'm going to take the bait. He's the current odds-on favorite to win the American League Cy Young, and for good reason.

Detroit's southpaw is 8-2 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.91 WHIP through 14 starts this season. His analytics also suggest that regression is unlikely, given that Skubal ranks in the 86th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, Average Exit Velocity and Hard-hit Rate.

Atlanta returns with right-hander Reynaldo Lopez, whose ERA is even lower than Skubal's. However, I want to fade Lopez because his underlying metrics suggest that steep regression is looming.

Lopez possesses a 3.60 xERA and ranks in the bottom half of the league in Average Exit Velocity, Barrel Rate and Hard-hit Rate. With expected regression around the corner, now is the perfect time to sell high on Lopez in a matchup against an elite pitcher in Skubal.

Pick: Tigers Moneyline +110 (Bet to +105)

Mets vs. Rangers

Wednesday, June 19, 8:05 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Mets Moneyline -106 (FanDuel)

By D.J. James

A pair of southpaws hit the bump on Wednesday when the Texas Rangers host the New York Mets. Andrew Heaney throws for the Rangers, and although he has been decent, he has allowed a ton of hard contact. He ranks in just the seventh percentile in Average Exit Velocity and the 21st percentile in Hard-hit Rate.

The issue is that he does not miss many bats and rarely keeps the ball on the ground.

Sean Manaea will counter him for the Mets and has been serviceable with a 4.11 ERA against a 4.35 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity ranks in the 33rd percentile with a Hard-hit Rate in the 29th percentile. Like Heaney, he allows plenty of fly balls, but there is not too wide of a gap between these starters.

The kicker comes with how well New York has hit lefties lately. In June, the Mets have a 178 wRC+ and a sub-17% Strikeout Rate with a walk rate over 8%. They have combined for a .975 OPS against southpaws this month, so Heaney is catching them at the wrong time.

The Rangers have a 107 wRC+ off of lefties with a Strikeout Rate of 20.6% and Walk Rate over 10%.

The Texas bullpen owns a 3.37 xFIP in June, but the Mets bullpen holds a 3.31 xFIP. Basically, the relief staffs are pretty much a wash.

Since New York has hit lefties so well in June, take the Mets on the moneyline from -106 to -132.

Pick: Mets Moneyline -106 (Bet to -132)