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Pictured: Nick Lodolo Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images

MLB best bets: Reds vs. Nationals odds, pick, predictions for Sat. 7/20

Originally posted on Action Network | By John Feltman | Last updated Jul 20, 2024 9:08 AM ET

The Cincinnati Reds are looking to bounce back in Washington against the Nationals on Saturday evening after suffering an 8-5 defeat on Friday night. It’s set up to be a terrific pitching matchup in D.C, as it’ll be a showdown between a couple of southpaws.

Nick Lodolo gets the ball for the Reds, and he’ll be opposed by Mackenzie Gore. Oddsmakers have the matchup at basically a Pick Em’ and the total set at 8.5.

Read more below for my best bet and preview for Saturday night’s clash between the Reds and Nationals.

Reds vs. Nationals Odds

Saturday, July 20, 6:45 p.m. ET, MASN

Reds Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-1.5 +150	8.5 -102o / -118u	-110

Nationals Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+1.5 -180	8.5 -102o / -118u	-110

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

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Cincinnati Reds

Lodolo has dealt with his fair share of injuries in his young career thus far, but there is no questioning the talent of the southpaw. Lodolo is a top-of-the-rotation talent and enters Saturday night’s start with a 3.33 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

He draws a matchup with the Nats who do not fair nearly as well offensively against lefties as opposed to right-handers. Their team batting average is roughly .10 points lower, as well as lower OBP, OPS, and SLG% numbers.

Lodolo’s whiff and chase rates are above average, but what stands out is his opposition’s expected batting average. Opposing hitters should have an xBA of .224, which is amongst the best group of starting pitchers in baseball.

The Nats have decent numbers off Lodolo in the past, but the sample is too small to take account for any of those results. He keeps the ball on the ground 45% of the time a ball is put into play, which is a good sign for repeated success in the future.

The Reds offense should have a field day against Mackenzie Gore, mostly because they fair much better against left-handed starters. Gore has a ton of strikeout potential, but he’s been shelled by the Reds in the past.

The Reds are batting .474 against Gore over 19 plate appearances. A small sample size, but there is something to be said about that.

Washington Nationals

The Nats picked up the win last night, but now they have a much taller task ahead. It is a difficult matchup for them on the mound, and their offense has to find a way to break through against Lodolo.

Gore’s numbers are actually pretty decent, compiling 116 Ks in 98 IPs. However, he’s been tagged hard by opposing offenses and does not keep the ball on the ground (34% GB Rate) when he allows contact.

That forecasts a lot of trouble for a Reds team that fairs better against left-handed pitching. Gore will continue to get better as he gains experience, but he is not trustworthy at the moment and he’s had a rough past against these hitters.

There’s always a possibility Gore has his elite stuff tonight, but it’s not enough of a certainty that is worthy of a wager backing the Nats.

Reds vs. Nationals

Betting Pick & Prediction

A lot of big money has poured in on the Reds, and to eliminate the bullpen variance I will target their moneyline in the first five innings. You can snag the same price on their F5 money line as opposed to relying on their bullpen which has been far from trustworthy.

The Reds offense has a great matchup against Gore, and I really like Lodolo’s matchup against a Nats lineup that struggles against lefties. This is easily one of my favorite spots on the board for Saturday night.