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MLB best bets: Who's for real and who's not in the National League?

By Jared Shlensky | Last updated 4/19/23

Earlier in the week we talked about which American League division leaders were for real and which weren't. Well, it's only fair we do the same for the National League.

Of the three teams leading their division in the National League — Atlanta, NL East; Milwaukee, NL Central; Arizona, NL West — only one was favored to win their division before Opening Day. However, that's slowly started to change.

Atlanta was favored to win the NL East at the start of the year, and with an NL-best 14 wins, the Braves (-190) are slowly becoming heavy favorites to repeat as division champs. St. Louis was the consensus favorite to win the NL Central, but the Redbirds have really struggled out of the gate, and the book really likes Milwaukee (-140) to stand atop the division by season's end. As for the NL West, well, what was projected to be one of the deepest divisions in baseball, or at least the National League, has been arguably the most disappointing. Arizona is the only team above .500 and leads the NL West by two games.

But of the three teams leading their division, who is actually most likely to win their division, and who is least likely? And we answer, Atlanta. The Braves are most likely to win their division. We're well aware the Mets and Phillies are also in this division, but the Braves are the best of the three. Why? Because of their depth.

The Braves rank in the top 10 in just about every offensive stat and the bullpen has been outstanding so far. We don't see that changing anytime soon, and even though the starting staff has struggled so far, we see the Braves' rotation turning the corner before you know it. Max Fried is back off the IL, Spencer Strider has been great in his first four starts and we're confident Charlie Morton and Kyle Wright get back on track.

As for the Braves' offense, they're dangerous. In fact, maybe the best in the NL. Don't forget, the Braves are down shortstop Orlando Arcia and center fielder Michael Harris and are still atop the NL East. Both will eventually be back and when they do, that'll make Atlanta that much more dangerous.

Meanwhile the team least likely to win their division, that would be the Arizona Diamondbacks. And the book agrees with us. Despite being the only team above .500 in the NL West, the D-backs are still 11/1 longshots to win the division. The Dodgers (-105) and Padres (+130) are still favored away ahead of Arizona to win the NL West, and we agree they should be.

San Diego needs to get Blake Snell back on track, but once Joe Musgrove and Fernando Tatis Jr. return, which should be rather soon, don't be surprised if the Padres get hot. San Diego is stacked offensively and arguably has the best left-handed reliever in the NL in Josh Hader. So, don't be too concerned about San Diego's slow start.

As for the Dodgers, we're not as optimistic as most are. This team desperately needs a shortstop and another big bat if they're going to make a real run at this division. And if they don't, they might be in big, big trouble. Knowing starters Walker Buehler and Tony Gonsolin should be back at some point is encouraging, but the pitching isn't the problem. The offense is.

Arizona has had a nice start to the season, but we just don't see it lasting. This team is at least a year away from contending, so unless you're only planning on only putting a little bit of money on the D-backs to win the NL West, we advise you to avoid them all together.

**Odds via DraftKings**

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