MLB best bets: Wiesguy's 2 Picks and a Prop for 6/21

Yesterday, I was excited when I saw Luis Arraez get another at-bat in the bottom of the ninth with a chance to get that magical second hit. Not only would it have kept him at that magic .400 mark, but it would have cashed that prop bet. Alas, it was not meant to be. 

On the team side, the Yankees came through and the Nationals did not. That is probably just par for the course and for "forcing" myself to pick an underdog on the daily. Never forget that the advantage every bettor has is to just take a pass. But where would be the fun in that, right?

For Wednesday we have a smaller slate thanks to a number of day games. Still, a seven-game evening slate provides enough distraction as you bone up for the NBA Draft tomorrow.

Bet Tracking

Favorite Picks: 18-14 (2.4 Units)
Underdog Pick: 13-19 (-29.5 Units)
Prop Pick: 13-19 (-43.5 Units)

Winning Days: 15 of 32

In Review: Tuesday, June 20

New York Yankees -115 (win)
As predicted, Gerrit Cole was the key. The Yankees got him an early lead and never looked back. 

Washington Nationals +130 (loss)
I am still not sure why the Cardinals were such heavy favorites yesterday, but they were the right call. 

Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Hits +185 (loss)
He has 3 chances to get a second hit and came up short. The payoff was worth the risk. 

MLB Picks for Wednesday, June 21

Favorite
Los Angeles Angels -145 (vs. Los Angeles Dodgers)

If you didn't notice, the Angels have more wins than the Dodgers right now. The Angels lost yesterday, but with top starter Shohei Ohtani on the mound tonight I like the home team getting back on track. According to MLB players, the thought is Ohtani will be in the other dugout next year. Tonight he deals them a loss. 

Underdog
Atlanta Braves +115 (vs Philadelphia Phillies)

The Phillies are trying to catch the Braves so this is an important series even though it is just June. Normally I am looking to back an ace like Aaron Nola, but he has been inconsistent this season, and a couple of the Braves' best bats - Ronald Acuna Jr. and Austin Riley - have big numbers against the righty (9 homers in less than 100 plate appearances combined). Atlanta rookie starter AJ Smith-Shawver has never faced Philly. His numbers so far have been good and that might be an advantage. 

Prop
Gavin Williams Under 14.5 Outs +145

I am giving it until the end of the week to see if I can turn things around on these individual props. Gavin Williams is making his MLB debut tonight and I like him coming up short of the minimum outs to get a win. He averaged just over five innings per start in the Minors this season with K rates that suggest he is not going to be super-efficient. At this price, I am willing to take that shot, even though Oakland is a favorable matchup.