Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Zach Eflin. Brad Penner-Imagn Images

MLB betting: AL Wild Card best bets for Wednesday 10/2

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated Oct 2, 2024 1:02 PM ET

A surprising first day of playoff baseball resulted in both underdogs winning Game 1 in the American League Wild Card. The Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals can punch their respective tickets to the Divisional Round on Wednesday, but we don't feel confident enough to bet the moneyline on either game.

Instead, let's break down our three favorite prop bets for Wednesday's action in the AL Wild Card Series.

1st inning result - Detroit Tigers (+465 FanDuel)

Coming off an upset win in Game 1, the Tigers will look to step on Houston's throat early in Game 2 considering they have the pitching disadvantage. Although Hunter Brown is a worthy favorite in this matchup, he's struggled to put up clean first innings all season.

In 30 starts this year, Brown has an ERA of 6.37 in the first inning. The first four batters in Detroit's Wednesday lineup are a combined 9-31 (.290) against Brown with a double and a home run. If the Tigers can scratch a run across against the slow-starting Brown, we trust Tyler Holton to keep a clean sheet in his half of the inning.

Detroit Tigers @ Houston Astros under 7.5 (-110 Caesars)

Although we like the value of Detroit jumping out to a lead in the first inning, we're still expecting a low-scoring game. Brown was fantastic down the stretch of the regular season, giving up two or fewer earned runs in eight of his last nine starts. In 12.0 innings against the Tigers this season, Brown has racked up 16 strikeouts and surrendered only one run.

The Tigers will be rolling with a bullpen game behind Holton, who held his opponent scoreless in 11 of his 12 appearances in September. Detroit's bullpen has been one of the best in baseball down the stretch, ranking third in ERA (2.41) and second in WHIP (0.99) over the last month.

Kansas City Royals @ Baltimore Orioles over 3.5 first 5 innings (-135 DraftKings)

Game 1 between the Royals and Orioles was the lowest-scoring game of Tuesday's slate, as the offenses combined to score only one run. That was with Cole Ragans and Corbin Burnes on the mound, though. This should be a much different game with Seth Lugo and Zach Eflin on the bump.

Lugo faced the Orioles once this season, and he got shelled for nine hits, four earned runs and two homers. In 33 plate appearances against Lugo, current Orioles hitters are batting .375 with a .823 xSLG. On the other side, current Royals hitters are batting .298 with a .502 xSLG in 99 plate appearances against Eflin. Kansas City jumped on Eflin for seven hits and five runs earlier this year.

Jack Dougherty

Jack Dougherty has been writing professionally since 2015, contributing to publications such as GoPSUSports. com, Centre Daily Times, Associated Press, and Sportscasting. com

More must-reads: