MLB picks, predictions, best bets for wild-card games Wednesday, 10/2

D.J. James's Tigers vs. Astros Best Bet: Trust Houston's Pitchers

Wednesday, Oct. 2

2:32 p.m. ET

ABC

Tigers Team Total Under 3.5 (Caesars)

By D.J. James

Hunter Brown is an excellent starting pitcher for the Houston Astros, who have to win or go home on Wednesday. Brown owns a 3.49 ERA and a 3.27 xERA. His Average Exit Velocity is under 86.5 mph and his Hard-Hit Rate in the 97th percentile, which is impeccable. He limits barrels and ranks in the 81st percentile in ground-ball rate. He may struggle, at times, with walks (8.4%), but his strikeout rate is 25.1%.

His opponent will be the Detroit Tigers, who notched three runs by singling Framber Valdez to death, but may not be able to do so against Brown. Unlike Valdez, Brown doesn't yield hard contact.

The Tigers had a 107 wRC+ with a 9.8% walk rate and a 24.8% strikeout rate off of righties in September. They struggle immensely against southpaws, but Brown might be too much of a mismatch.

Houston’s bullpen was dominant in September, pitching to a 3.40 xFIP with a 7.5% walk rate and a 28.3% strikeout rate.

Look for the Astros to limit the Tigers in Game 2. The Tigers got started early in Game 1, but may not do so here. Bet their under from 3.5 to 3.

Pick: Tigers Team Total Under 3.5

BJ Cunningham's Royals vs Orioles Best Bet: Back Baltimore Early

Wednesday, Oct. 2

4:38 p.m. ET

ESPN

Orioles F5 Moneyline (Bet365)

By BJ Cunningham

Zach Eflin will get the ball with the Orioles' season on the line, and that's a good thing given how well he's pitched since coming over from Tampa Bay. He has an xFIP below 4.00 since the beginning of July and has incredible command of his entire arsenal, owning one of the lowest BB/9 rates in baseball.

Corbin Burnes shut down the Royals with his cutter and that happens to be Eflin's most utilized pitch. The Royals are third-to-last in terms of xwOBA against right handed cutters, so this will be a good matchup for Eflin.

Seth Lugo is a regression candidate as his ERA is sitting at 3.00, but his xERA is up at 3.73. He's dominated right-handed hitters this season, but is allowing a .301 wOBA against lefties, which is a problem because the Orioles have seven left-handed bats in their lineup.

Lugo can be a difficult pitcher to prepare for because he throws essentially eight different pitches, but most of them are well below average. Overall, he only has a 97 Stuff+ rating.

I have the Orioles projected at -152 for the first five innings, so I like the value on them at -140.

Pick: Orioles F5 Moneyline

Tony Sartori's Mets vs Brewers Best Bet: Will Mets Sweep?

Wednesday, Oct. 2

7:38 p.m. ET

ESPN

Mets Moneyline (DraftKings)

By Tony Sartori
As much as this pains me to say as a Brewers fan, I believe Milwaukee's season will come to an end on Wednesday evening. In my eyes, the clear pitching advantage goes to the Mets in the Sean Manaea versus Frankie Montas matchup.

Through 30 starts this season, Montas is 7-11 with a 4.84 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally poor as the right-hander ranks in the bottom quarter of the league in xERA, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

Meanwhile, Manaea outranks Montas in ERA, WHIP, xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

The hitting in this matchup is a wash as both teams rank in the top 10 in pretty much every category across the board. Even if you want to give a slight edge to Milwaukee in that department, the gap between Manaea and Montas is much larger.

Pick: Mets Moneyline