MLB Home Run Prop, Thursday 6/5

Everyone knows fans dig the longball — so every day I post my favorite Home Run calls for a fun, low-risk approach to baseball betting. Make sure to bookmark our Athlon Sports Betting tab to be first on who's going yard today.

Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL vs. Brandon Pfaadt, ARI (+375) BET365 — Starts 12:15pm EST

Arizona sends Brandon Pfaadt to the bump this afternoon in the face of some ugly splits to face the Braves. The third-year RHP will look to turn around his 5.91 Road ERA and a terribly disappointing stretch in which Pfaadt surrendered eighteen earned runs (including five HR) in just 15.1 IP of work. Yikes. The four-seamer performed especially badly all year (32% Use/.687 xSLG/14% Whiff), leading to the disastrous contact quality metrics across the board (50.3% Hard Hit, 13.2% Barrel, 12 HR). 

On the flipside, Atlanta's desperate to get back on last year's offensive track. One good way to do that's returning one of the most dangerous hitters on the planet in Ronald Acuña. El Abusador wasted no time getting back to peak powers. In the 45 PAs since returning from a knee injury, the Braves' leadoff man's filling the spreadsheet out lovely — .341 BA, 1.010 OPS, 76.9% Hard Hit, 42.3% Flyball, 19.2% Barrel, .399 xwOBA, 3 HR. Wow. 

Good luck!

LAGHEZZA'S LEAN:

Great spot with good weather to pick on Pfaadt's continuing struggles against right-handed hitters.  Make sure to always shop for the best price, but especially so in longer-odd markets. I just bet RONALD ACUNA TO HIT A HOME RUN (+375) at Bet365.