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MLB Home Run Prop, Thursday 6/6

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By John Laghezza | Last updated Jun 6, 2025 11:22 AM ET

Everyone knows fans dig the longball — so every day I post my favorite Home Run calls for a fun, low-risk approach to baseball betting. Make sure to bookmark our Athlon Sports Betting tab to be first on who's going yard today.

START TIME 6:10pm EST, Miller Park

First off, hat tip to our guy Ronald Acuña for cashing yesterday's home run call!

If it's all about the process, I try to refine my home run calls down to a template — talented hitters in the top-third of a lineup and a plus-hitting environment.

Today, we find veteran slugger Christian Yelich in a great spot for the beer-makers against San Diego and struggling starter Randy Vásquez. The 26-year-old righty is through 58.2 IP this season, and despite decent results (3.99 ERA) his under-the-hood peripherals are disastrous — 5.55 SIERA, 5.86 xERA, 1.9% K-BB, 6.7% Swinging Strike, 26.5% Chase, 91.1% Zone-Contact, 43.1% Flyball, 11.6% Barrel. Negative regression's heading this way...

Vásquez is pitching especially poorly on the road this year with truly pronounced splits vs LHH, who have crushed him all season — .287 BA, .898 OPS, 50.0% Flyball, 53% Hard Hit, .627 xSLG, .435 xwOBA, and 6 HR.

He'll be doing his best to sneak that four-seam/cutter combo past Christian Yelich, amidst a ridiculous heater, especially over his last 35 vs RHP — .394 BA, 1.277 OPS, 44.0% Hard Hit, 16.0% Barrel, .442 xwOBA, and 5 HR.

LAGHEZZA'S LEAN:

Yelich got off to such a horrid start at the dish, it was only a matter of time before he started seeing the ball well and going nuclear. He's at home in a great hitting environment in the ultimate strength-on-weakness split. I'm trying to make it two in a row with CHRISTIAN YELICH TO HIT A HOME RUN (+500) at Draftkings.

Thanks for reading!

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This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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