MLB home run props for 5/22: Back Vlad, and you won't be sad

There were a ton of home runs in all three games we targeted with HR props on Tuesday, but we unfortunately chose the wrong players. Oh well. Can't win 'em all. Let's keep trusting the process with our three favorite HR bets for Wednesday's MLB slate. 

Bryce Harper (+290 FanDuel)

Rangers at Phillies, 6:40 p.m. ET

We're all over the Philadelphia Phillies in this matchup against the Texas Rangers. For one, Rangers starter Dane Dunning is giving up the highest barrel rate (15.6 percent) among 125 qualified pitchers, and he's surrendered seven homers in seven starts. The wind is also projected to blow strongly out to center field at Citizens Bank Park, so this is the perfect target for some HR props. Let's start with Bryce Harper, who leads the Phillies in barrel rate (12.9 percent) and is slugging .600 over the last week. This isn't a great price, but we think it should be even lower.

Kody Clemens (+700 FD)

Rangers at Phillies, 6:40 p.m. ET

With so much going in Philadelphia's favor on Wednesday night, we're looking to double up on home run props against Dunning. Looking deeper down the board, let's pair Harper with Kody Clemens at +700. Clemens leads the Phillies in slugging percentage against right-handed pitching (.778), as he's cracked three homers in only 27 at-bats against righties this year. Clemens has a ton of pop from the bottom of the lineup. He can take advantage of a Dunning mistake. 

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+370 FD)

White Sox at Blue Jays, 7:07 p.m. ET

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been incredibly unlucky in the power department this season. The Toronto Blue Jays slugger has only four home runs and a .385 slugging percentage, but he has a .482 expected slugging percentage. That 0.097 difference is the 11th-highest mark in MLB. Guerrero is batting .429 over the last 15 days, but he doesn't have a single home run in that span. The homers are eventually going to catch up to his hot bat.