We struck out in home run props on Thursday night, but we still have one more day this week to cash a plus-money ticket. Let's finish the week with a bang with three HR bets for Friday's MLB slate.
Braves at Pirates, 6:40 p.m. ET
We're interested in fading Pittsburgh Pirates starter Bailey Falter with a home run prop on Friday. Falter has surrendered six home runs over his last six starts, and he's giving up a 33.1 percent fly ball rate and a 10.2 percent barrel rate this season. Let's roll with Travis d'Arnaud, who leads the Atlanta Braves in homers (four), batting average (.385) and slugging percentage (.923) against left-handed pitching. The wind is also projected to blow out to left-center field, which can only help our cause here.
Rangers at Twins, 7:10 p.m. ET
Friday night's matchup between the Texas Rangers and the Minnesota Twins should be a gold mine for home run props, as the wind is projected to blow strongly out to center field during the game. With Bailey Ober on the mound for the Twins, we love Marcus Semien at a juicy price. In seven career at-bats against Ober, Semien is 4-7 with two home runs and a double. That combination of hitter-friendly weather and a great matchup makes Semien our favorite HR bet on the slate.
Astros at Athletics, 9:40 p.m. ET
Justin Verlander is finally starting to lose his fastball (pun intended) at the age of 41. The Houston Astros rank in the 10th percentile in barrel rate (11.2 percent), and his 32.7 percent fly ball rate is the second-highest mark of his career. If we're looking for an Oakland Athletics hitter who can take advantage of a Verlander meatball, we're going with Brent Rooker. Rooker ranks 20th in MLB among qualified hitters in barrel rate (14.9 percent) and 13th in fly ball rate (35.1 percent).
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