
We were unable to cash a home run prop on Monday, but we're feeling good about our chances on Tuesday night's loaded slate. Let's check out the three hitters we're targeting with HR bets.
Indians at Reds, 7:10 p.m. ET
No pitcher in MLB has given up more than Triston McKenzie (14) this season, so you know we're fading him on Tuesday night. McKenzie has surrendered eight homers over his last three starts, and he now ranks in the seventh percentile in barrel rate. Let's fade him with Will Benson, who leads the Cincinnati Reds in barrel rate (13.2 percent) this year. The outfielder is also batting .333 and slugging .625 against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks, and this is a great price on an even better matchup.
Rangers at Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET
Like McKenzie, Dane Dunning is a pitcher we love fading in home run props. The Texas Rangers starter is surrendering the highest barrel rate (14.0 percent) in MLB among 128 qualified pitchers, and he gave up two homers in his last start against the Detroit Tigers. Teoscar Hernandez leads the Los Angeles Dodgers in home runs and ranks second in barrel rate this season. He's also batting .347 and slugging .592 against right-handed pitching over the last three weeks, yet he's priced at +500 in an ideal matchup. We'll take it.
Rangers at Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET
This matchup against Dunning is too juicy for just one HR selection. Dodger Stadium is also the second-friendliest park for home runs this season, per Baseball Savant's park factors, and the wind will be blowing out to right field during the game. Mookie Betts is batting .301 and slugging .511 against right-handed pitching this season, and he's hit eight of his 10 homers off righties. Betts' barrel rate is down from the beginning of the season, but this is a great matchup for him to jump on one.
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