Wednesday is looking like a juicy day for home run props thanks to some friendly weather and starting pitchers with sky-high barrel rates. Let's take advantage and target our three favorite HR bets for the MLB slate.
Astros at Phillies, 4:05 p.m. ET
Our good friend Taijuan Walker is back on the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies, so you know we're fading him with a home run prop. Walker ranks in the first percentile in barrel rate (14.2 percent) and hard-hit rate (50.0 percent) this season, and he's surrendered nine homes over his last five starts. Woof. Bregman has a 64.0 percent fly-ball rate and a 44.0 percent hard-hit rate against righties over the last two weeks, and he's 4-8 against Walker in his career.
Giants at Brewers, 8:10 p.m. ET
This is a perfect setup for Ortiz. The Milwaukee Brewers third baseman has hit five of his nine home runs off left-handed pitching this season, and he's been crushing lefties recently. Ortiz is slugging .650 with a 46.7 percent fly-ball rate and a 60.0 percent hard-hit rate against southpaws this month. San Francisco Giants left-hander Kyle Harrison has a 10.2 percent barrel rate this year because he throws a high percentage of 4-seam fastballs, so this is a solid matchup for Ortiz at a huge price.
Marlins at Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET
It's never a bad idea to target a home run prop at Coors Field, and we love this matchup for Cave. Miami Marlins starter Max Meyer is giving up a 14.3 percent barrel rate and a 49.0 hard-hit rate this season, and he's given up four home runs in his last two starts. Meyer's 4-seam fastball is getting slaughtered this year, and Cave has a .315 batting average and a team-best .616 slugging percentage against 4-seamers this year. He's also batting .350 ad slugging .600 against righties over the last two weeks.
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