MLB insider addresses Yankees' chances of winning AL East

New York Yankees shortstop George Lombard Jr. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

MLB insider addresses Yankees' chances of winning AL East

By Kevin Henry | Last updated Aug 12, 2026 3:53 PM ET

The Tampa Bay Rays started Wednesday with a six-game lead over the New York Yankees in the American League East. Can the Yankees overcome the deficit and claim the division title? One MLB insider believes it's possible...with one exception.

Speaking on the Foul Territory podcast on Wednesday, MLB insider Ken Rosenthal said the division lead owned by the Rays, "is not inconsequential. It's also not insurmountable. We've seen teams blow leads of this nature, Detroit Tigers last year, and it can happen."

However, Rosenthal added that the Rays have three "pillars" in their lineup who are performing well in Jonathan Aranda, Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero. The trade deadline acquisition of catcher Liam Hicks also added to the intrigue of the Rays as the middle of August arrives, with Rosenthal saying, "It's an interesting Rays team for sure."

How New York Yankees can catch Tampa Bay Rays

While Rosenthal likes what he is seeing in the Rays, he also admits there is a way that the Yankees can overcome the six-game deficit and still take the division title.

Do the Rays have a real shot of winning the division?@Ken_Rosenthal weighs in... pic.twitter.com/vn9YvlTeIh
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) August 12, 2026

"The only thing that perhaps can stop them (Rays) is if they slow down a little bit," Rosenthal said. "They've been playing some weaker competition lately, and then the Yankees get healthy and get hot. Can that happen? Absolutely, it can happen. But the Rays are for real. We've seen that."

For the Yankees, pitcher Carlos Rodon could return by the end of August. Manager Aaron Boone also said on Tuesday of Cody Bellinger, "I don't think he's too far off," which would be a welcome sign for a Yankees lineup that has been missing him, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge.

New York's potential one path to the division certainly is a long shot as, on Wednesday, FanGraphs gives Tampa Bay an 82.0 percent chance of winning the division with the Yankees having a 14.6 percent chance. The Boston Red Sox, by the way, still have a 3.3 percent chance.

The Yankees have four games left in 2026 against the Rays, with Tampa Bay visiting the Bronx from September 22-24 (the first day of the series is a double-header). Those four games not only represent a chance for the Yankees to gain ground on the Rays, but also win the season series as well as Tampa Bay owns a 6-3 head-to-head advantage so far.

With just 43 regular-season games remaining on their schedule, the Rays seem to be churning toward a division title. However, the Yankees may still have one very long shot left at reaching the crown.

Kevin Henry

A member of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA), Kevin Henry has been covering MLB and MiLB for nearly two decades. Those assignments have included All-Star Games and the MLB postseason, including the World Series. Based in the Denver area, Kevin calls Coors Field his home base, but travels throughout North America during the season to discover the best stories possible

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