MLB Longshot: June Special

Turning the page on your calendar means a clean slate and fresh chance to attack viable longshots in my new favorite niche market: Monthly Specials on Draftkings. The goal's simple — win the most games by June 30th

With any longer term markets providing high-upside returns, I start my shopping at the bottom of the board looking for misprices. And remember, similar to betting the day's highest scoring team, you can place multiple micro wagers — providing the venture winds up as a net positive in the event of a win.

So I'm keeping it pretty simple — we want a balanced team that can pitch without too many elite teams on the schedule. That last part's the real kicker... since this market's relatively new, there isn't any content tailored specifically for it. 

Yankees and Dodgers at (+650)? That porridge is too hot...

Rockies and White Sox at (+50000)? While tempting, that porridge is too cold.

I shot for the bowl in the middle and wound up on the Minnesota Twins at (+3500).

MIN STARTERS: For starters, the rotation's solid top to bottom, giving the Twinkies a shot to win nightly. Stacked up top with Joe Ryan, Pablo López, and Bailey Ober, MIN can go toe-to-toe with just about anyone. And having rookie stud Zebby Matthews and the resurgent Chris Paddack taking the hill on days four and five will keep Minnesota from being heavy underdogs.

For reference, the Twins' starters are fifth in ERA (3.36), sixth in SIERA (3.72), seventh in WHIP (1.17), third in K-BB (17.6%), and sixth in Hard Hit rate (29.9%) allowed. That'll play.

MIN LINEUP: Essentially the weakest of the three phases in Minnesota's game, you'd be hard-pressed to make a case for their lineup as much better than average. As much as I love presenting combinations of advanced stats, sometimes the singular amalgamated metrics perform as the perfect descriptor. Across their last ~1000 PAs over the last 30 days, Minnesota posted a 101 wRC+ at the dish. Yup, average.

While uninspiring next to the Dodgers, there's some encouraging stylistic elements to their approach. On the season, they strike out right around the league average (20.4% K), but boast above average power (41.6% Hard Hit) with a pull-heavy lean (41.5% Pull). Not to mention in just the last three days alone, three everyday hitters (Matt Wallner, Byron Buxton, Harrison Bader) returned to the order.

MIN BULLPEN: When their starters get them a lead, Minnesota's pen has done an objectively great job this season in the late innings...

• 3.24 ERA — T-3rd
• 3.07 SIERA — 1st
• 1.13 WHIP — 3rd
• 18.4% K-BB — 2nd

MIN SCHEDULE: Perhaps the most critical, yet hard to research/predict element is schedule difficulty. Sure, the schedule's printed but pitching matters... a lot. For example, facing the Pirates sounds great, unless Paul Skenes is out there.

• 4 Games @ ATH
• 3 Games vs TOR
• 3 Games vs TEX
• 3 Games @ HOU
• 3 Games @ CIN
• 3 Games vs MIL
• 4 Games vs SEA
• 3 Games @ DET

LAGHEZZA'S LEAN: We get to avoid all the biggest buzz saws, and no one outside the Tigers (and maybe Astros?) really scare me to take a series. Give me a fraction of a unit on MINNESOTA  TWINS TO WIN THE MOST GAMES IN JUNE (+3500) on Draftkings.