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MLB Probable Starters Plus Underdog Winners, 6/16

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By John Laghezza | Last updated Jun 16, 2025 9:23 AM ET

"Give me six hours to chop down a tree, I'll spend the first four sharpening the axe." Part of the struggle betting baseball on a daily basis comes down to handling the massive amount of subsequent data. Before you start opening 1,000 different Chrome tabs chasing data, get all your ducks in a row first.

Make sure to bookmark our Athlon Sports Betting tab to help solidify that foundation bright and early every day.

Monday, June 16th, 2025

6:40pm EST — O/U 8.5

PHI Mick Abel: -130; 56.5% Implied Probability

MIA Sandy Alcantara: +111; 47.4% Implied Probability

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6:45pm EST — O/U 8.5

COL Carson Palmquist: +174; 36.5% Implied Probability

WSH Jake Irvin: -208; 67.5% Implied Probability

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7:05pm EST — O/U 8.5

LAA Jose Soriano: +175; 36.4% Implied Probability

NYY Clarke Schmidt: -208; 67.5% Implied Probability

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7:35pm EST — O/U 8.5

BAL Zach Eflin: +106; 48.5% Implied Probability

TB Ryan Pepiot: -123; 55.2% Implied Probability

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9:40pm EST — O/U 7.5

BOS Lucas Giolito: +159; 38.6% Implied Probability

SEA Logan Gilbert: -189; 65.4% Implied Probability

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10:05pm EST — O/U 10

HOU Lance McCullers Jr.: -154; 60.6% Implied Probability

ATH Mitch Spence: +130; 43.5% Implied Probability

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10:10pm EST — O/U 8.5

SD Dylan Cease: +134; 42.7% Implied Probability

LAD Shohei Ohtani: -159; 61.4% Implied Probability

LAGHEZZA'S LEANS:

My first read usually comes down to one thing: underdogs at plus odds with a 50/50 chance to win outright — Today's are BAL and SD. Remember, baseball's inherently variant and backing dogs greatly lowers the necessary win/loss record to profit long-term.

Thanks so much for reading — it's been so exciting getting to interact with all my new friends here at Athlon Sports. If you're interested in upping your analytical game, come find out what all the hubbub's about regarding my best-selling MLB/NFL Substack page.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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