MLB Thursday Night Parlay: Braves and Dodgers are a compelling duo

When it comes to placing a bet, we're always looking for two things. First is a bet that we think has at least a 55% shot of hitting. Second we need good odds, preferably no worse than -200. When we get those things aligned, we're in green light territory. We're in that zone tonight. 

When we put this low-risk alternate run line parlay together -- Los Angeles Dodgers (+1.5) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves (+1.5) vs. San Diego Padres -- we were hoping for odds no worse than -120. But boy, oh boy, did we hit the jackpot thanks to Caesars Sportsbook. The line on this parlay via Caesars is +175, which is by far and away the best odds out there.

Parlay Leg 1 - Back Dustin May and the Dodgers

We wouldn't be surprised if both teams win outright on Thursday, but we're going to play it safe, and take both teams to lose by no more than a run. Los Angeles (+1.5) against Arizona is the safest leg in this parlay, especially with the Dodgers off to a 5-2 start and Dustin May coming off a superb outing in his season debut. 

As long as starters Walker Buehler and Tony Gonsolin are on the Injured List, the Dodgers desperately need May to step up, and in his first start of the season, he did just that. May faced the D-backs last Friday and yielded just three hits and a walk over seven scoreless innings. And despite Justin Turner and Trea Turner no longer in the lineup, the Dodgers offense hasn't missed a beat. In fact, the Dodgers lead the National League in runs scored and have scored 10 or more runs in a game twice already. 

Arizona's Merrill Kelly might have kept Los Angeles off the scoreboard in his season debut, but he didn't even make it through four innings. And don't forget this is the same Kelly who recorded just four outs against team Japan in the World Baseball Classic Championship Game. A lot would have to go Arizona's way for them to come away with a win, and even if they do come out victorious, we don't see it being by more than a run.

Parlay Leg 2 - Ride Spencer Strider and the Braves

As for the last leg of our parlay, we're grabbing the Braves (+1.5) against San Diego. Spencer Strider struck out nine over six scoreless innings in his season debut against Washington, and considering Strider was our preseason NL Cy Young pick, we're confident the right-hander and the Braves win on Thursday. However, crazy things do happen in baseball, so once again, we're going to be conservative and take Atlanta to lose by no more than a run.

Atlanta has won three straight and sit atop the NL East at 5-1. With Ronald Acuna Jr. healthy and playing well, the Braves offense is very dangerous and they have plenty of pitching to keep the other team off the board. More importantly, the highly touted Padres are only 3-3 on the year and haven't exactly looked crisp to start the season. San Diego is still without superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. and starter Blake Snell lasted just 4.1 innings in his season debut and is winless in his career against the Braves. 

Both teams are stacked, so this very well could be a nail-biter. The Padres are more than capable of beating the Braves, especially if they get to Strider early, but we would be surprised if either team wins by more than a run. There's no denying this is the riskier of our two legs, but it's still worth it. 

The Parlay: Los Angeles Dodgers (+1.5) AND Atlanta Braves (+1.5) (+175 odds via Caesars Sportsbook)
Bet $100 to win $175.