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Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

Searching for value in betting most MLB regular season wins

By Jared Shlensky | Last updated 4/5/23

We're not that far into the MLB season and we're already talking about who's going to finish with the best record in baseball. Don't blame us, blame DraftKings. They've got a best regular season record prop bet available on their site and with more than 150 games to go, there's still plenty of value to be had.

Our strategy is simple. If one of the teams you're high on gets hot sooner rather than later, chances are the line is going to drop. Don't be concerned about where a team currently sits in their division or even what their record is, but instead focus more on their roster, health, and past history. There's plenty of really good teams -- Houston, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, etc. -- that aren't leading their division or even .500 right now, but don't be surprised if they turn it around real soon. And the quicker they do turn it around, the more and more likely the line on each of them to finish with the best record in baseball plummets. The time to act is now!

Houston Astros (+600)

Take the Astros for example. They're third in the AL West and 2-4 on the season after losing to Detroit on Tuesday. However, the reigning champs are currently 6/1 favorites to finish with the best record in baseball. You're probably thinking that line is way too low, but we don't think so.

Remember, the 'stros are down two of their best hitters -- Jose Altuve and Michael Brantley -- and both are expected to be back sometime in June. Is there a chance things get worse for Houston before then? Absolutely, but highly unlikely.

This lineup is still full of guys who can swing it, the bullpen -- who finished with a 0.83 ERA in the postseason -- is pretty much the exact same as last year's, and the rotation minus Justin Verlander is still really good with a ton of depth. And to top it off, Houston led the American League with 106 wins a year ago. It might take Houston another week or two to get above .500, but once they get hot, don't be shocked if they stay hot. And once that happens, the line on Houston to finish the best record is going to drop.

Los Angeles Dodgers (+700)

We'll be the first to say it, we were not all that high on the Dodgers at the start of the season. But after seeing the team in action, that's slowly starting to change. It's no secret Los Angeles has dominated the NL West the last 10 years and after leading the Majors with 111 wins a year ago, even a significant drop-off could still leave them in the mix to lead the league.

We had a ton of concerns about the Dodgers before the start of the season. It started over the winter in free agency when the Dodgers lost Trea Turner, Justin Turner, and Tyler Anderson. Walker Buehler was already out recovering from Tommy John surgery, and then the pitching staff was hit with a slew of injuries with Tony Gonsolin and Ryan Pepiot beginning the season on the DL and a trio of projected bullpen arms in Daniel Hudson, Blake Treinen and Alex Reyes also opening on the Injured List. Finally projected starting shortstop Gavin Lux tore his ACL in spring training. Talk about some bad luck.

But it hasn't really affected Los Angeles so much to start the season. The Dodgers are 4-2 and veteran southpaws Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw look just as dominant as they have in the past. Both Noah Syndergaard and Dustin May were great in their first start and look to be able to potentially give the Dodgers the deep starting rotation that has been the backbone of their success the last decade. Will that success continue? Who knows. But Dave Roberts always seems to have this team dominating the regular season, and the start here is promising. Will Smith looks like he's ready to take the next step in his career, Trayce Thompson is playing like he deserves to be an everyday player and even veteran Jason Heyward has been surprisingly good so far.

We've got a long way to go before October rolls around, but once again, the Dodgers are atop the NL West and tied for the NL lead in wins. But considering the Dodgers track record, putting some money on them to finish with the best record in baseball seems like a worthwhile play.

Tampa Bay Rays (+1300)

Tampa Bay is MLB's only unbeaten team after coming back against Washington on Tuesday night. We weren't super high on the Rays before the season started, but they've come out blazing hot. The Rays starting staff and bullpen have been fantastic, and the offense has done more than enough in the team's first five games.

It's quite clear the Rays need at least one more bat to be legit contenders, but that's something they can address closer to the trade deadline. And with a super easy schedule to begin the year -- three games vs. Detroit, Washington and Oakland to open the season -- the line could drop rather quickly on the Rays (+1300) to lead MLB in wins. So, betting on Tampa Bay now rather than later is the right approach.