National League East betting guide

The Mets have made the big moves this offseason, but the Braves are defending champs, which counts for something. Those two teams are at the top of the odds table with a sizable gap between them and Philly. It all makes sense to me. 

To try to bridge the gap, the Phillies have been as active as anyone, investing in their lineup and bullpen as they look to avoid another wasted season from stud Bryce Harper. Their lineup is really good with the potential to be great, but there are still holes on the mound. 

The Marlins are a perennial sleeper. They never win, but we always think they might and they fool us for a week or two with their pitching. They are better but nowhere near good enough to really win the division...I don't think. 

Meanwhile, Washington has sunk from champ to chump pretty quickly. The Nats might be the worst team in baseball this season, and there is good competition for that title. 

Here is a closer look at each of the teams in the NL East.

National League East futures odds

• New York Mets +140
• Atlanta Braves +150
• Philadelphia Phillies +400
• Miami Marlins +1400
• Washington Nationals +4000

New York Mets (best bet)

Key additions: OF Starling Marte, 3B Eduardo Escobar, SP Max Scherzer
Key subtractions: SS Javy Baez, SP Noah Syndergaard, SP Marcus Stroman

The Mets are definitely one of the most interesting teams in the league. Last year, they faded hard in the second half, but that has not stopped them from investing heavily this offseason. On the offense, I love the addition of Marte, one of the most underrated players in the game. I love how he has speed and power and shows off both. Escobar is also a nice addition, but what this team needs more than anything is for SS Francisco Lindor to start earning his money. That would tie it all together. P.S. The Polar Bear (Pete Alonso, should be everyone's second-favorite player.)

On the mound, nobody has a more dominant one-two punch than Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. Unlike Lindor, Scherzer knows how to play while making big money, and I have no worries about any need to adapt to pitching in New York. Chris Bassitt was also a nice pickup from Oakland, giving the Mets a deep and talented rotation. The bullpen is more than good enough to make sure there are not too many squandered outings by their co-aces, but both have also had a habit of not getting the run support they deserve. 

The Mets look very good right now. Now they just have to go out and win it. 

Atlanta Braves

Key additions: 1B Matt Olson, RP Kenley Jansen 
Key subtractions: 1B Freddie Freeman, OF Jorge Soler

The Braves are the defending World Series Champs. That always gives a team some cover, but the Braves were actually very active in the offseason. People can say what they want about the Freddie Freeman thing, but what are the Braves supposed to do? They tried to sign him, they couldn't get an agreement, and then they moved on. Olson should do great hitting in a lineup that has lots of power. OF Ronald Acuna is the most talented player on the team. He is not going to start the season in the lineup, and they should not have to rush him. 

The Braves were a surprise winner last year because their pitching is not elite or plentiful. Max Fried and Ian Anderson are good, but fellow youngster Mike Soroka is in a similar position to Acuna, starting on the shelf. If he gets back to form, then they have enough to compete for sure. They don't have an ace like the Mets but nobody does. In the bullpen, Jansen is not what he once was but can still be very effective. He and Will Smith give Atlanta the best bullpen in the division. 

Atlanta won the division and the World Series a year ago. They are definitely good enough to do it again.

Philadelphia Phillies

Key additions: OF Kyle Schwarber, OF Nick Castellanos
Key subtractions: OF Andrew McCutcheon, CI Brad Miller

The Phillies are going all-in on offense with the additions of Schwarber and Castellanos. I like the moves and feel they are actually pretty low-risk. Both have moved teams before and they have hit everywhere they have gone. The defense might be brutal, but the outfield (with Bryce Harper) should hit well over 100 homers. The infield has a lower ceiling even with JT Realmuto being the best catcher in the NL. The offense is not going to hold this team back. 

Zack Wheeler was awesome last season, but there are some health concerns right now. That puts extra pressure on Aaron Nola, who has been down for a couple of seasons. His ceiling is high, and they are going to need him more than they want to. Kyle Gibson was picked up at the deadline last year and did not give the Phillies any pop down the stretch. He is a quality innings-eater, though. Philly turned over one of the worst bullpens in the majors. They had to. It is just hard to see if they are any better as a result right now. 

Philly should push the Mets and Braves. I am going to take a wait-and-see with Wheeler before I make a play. You are not going to lose any real value by waiting. 

Miami Marlins

Key additions: OF Jorge Soler, OF Avisail Garcia
Key subtractions: Nothing significant

The Marlins can pitch, and with the additions of Soler and Garcia, they can now hit a little too. Both of those guys immediately become the Marlins' two best hitters, and Soler is a former home run champ, so he puts pressure on the opposing pitching all game long. The lineup still needs a few players to emerge with 2B Jazz Chisolm an intriguing power/speed guy. He might be good for a 20/20 season. His problem is making regular contact. It is starting to come together for the Marlins at the plate. 

Miami has a nice group of young starters. Sandy Alcantara is the name most know best, and the Marlins would love a breakout from them. Nobody in their projected rotation is even 27 yet, so there are a lot of good candidates for breakouts. If they get a couple, this team gets very interesting because there are no significant weak links in that group. The bullpen has some live arms. It is not going to make sense to invest in this group until the team is closer to winning. 

Pitching is still the ultimate tool of a sleeper team, and the Marlins definitely have that. They might be worth a sprinkle. 

Washington Nationals

Key additions: DH Nelson Cruz
Key subtractions: No significant losses

Baseball is a funny sport because the Nats have OF Juan Soto, one of the best young players in the game, and it might make no difference to their season this year. I am not sure what the game plan was around signing Nelson Cruz, even if he might be the best DH in the game. Beyond those guys, there is not much to get excited about with the lineup. Maybe 1B Josh Bell regains the stroke and confidence he had with Pittsburgh, but it does not look likely.

The killer rotation the Nats had during their World Series run is no more. Scherzer is long gone, Stephen Strasburg is hurt again and Patrick Corbin has declined significantly. The latter still leads the rotation, and that is why this team is unlikely to surprise this year. This is a group of No. 4 and No. 5 starters without much upside. The bullpen is trying to turn back the clock with the returns of guys like Sean Doolittle and Tyler Clippard. They are loaded with arms they hope to show enough to be traded. 

The Nats are not worth considering. Soto and Cruz could combine for 100 homers, and this group will still lose 100 games or more.