MLB player prop markets have mostly sharpened beyond any real expectation to beat them at this point. That said, the inherent injury risk of pitching in the majors makes this market far from stable — one flexor strain and the whole thing instantly gets turned on its head.
LAGHEZZA'S LEANS:
As a lifelong longshot bettor and habitual contrarian, you'd think this market would be right up my alley — but I can't do it. Rather than galaxy-brain some poor excuse for an argument why Shohei Ohtani's not a stone-cold lock for MVP, let's take a second to appreciate the greatness.
Before leaving L.A. for L.A., the argument for Ohtani's runaway odds were at least partly predicated on the fact he pitched also. Well, Shohei's yet to throw a single strike and still sits as a heavy (-300) favorite. As long as the Dodger's leadoff man's active, consider this market dead as a doornail.
If, heaven forbid, something happens to our sweet prince we can revisit this N.L. showdown between Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kyle Tucker, Elly De La Cruz, and Francisco Lindor — for now at least, you can cross it off your list.
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