Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Ryne Nelson (19) pitches against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Chase Field in Phoenix, on Sept. 24, 2025. Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

National Outlet Makes Strange D-backs Breakout Prediction

Originally posted on Arizona Diamondbacks on SI
By Alex D'Agostino | Last updated Feb 23, 2026 10:00 AM ET

Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Ryne Nelson began to show signs of a breakout in the latter end of the 2024 season. By the middle of 2025, he was far and away the best starting pitcher on Arizona's staff.

It took a roundabout route to get there, beginning with an unsuccessful relief stint. But when he was moved to the rotation full time, he delivered a nearly ace-like line, pitching to a 3.16 ERA over the course of 23 starts.

For the full season, Nelson held a 3.39 ERA and 3.73 FIP, and that's counting the 4.50 ERA over 26 relief innings.

So it was a little strange to see Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter list Nelson as the Diamondbacks' biggest breakout candidate on the pitching staff in a recent article.

Arizona Diamondbacks' Ryne Nelson Named Breakout Candidate

Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Here's what Reuter had to say about Nelson:

"With Merrill Kelly traded and Zac Gallen struggling, Nelson was the best starter on the D-backs staff by the end of the 2025 season, despite opening the year in a bullpen role. Over his final seven outings, he had a 2.85 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while logging six quality starts, and he now pencils in as the No. 3 starter and pivot point in a volatile rotation."

On paper, Nelson might be one of the only pitchers eligible for a true breakout season in 2026. Eduardo Rodriguez, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are who they are at this stage.

But Nelson has been in the midst of his breakout for more than a full season at this stage. It began with a 3.23 ERA in the second half of 2024, and only continued in that direction in 2025.

So unless he somehow manages to put forward an even more unbelievable season — which is certainly a possibility — Nelson is likely already on the way to his ceiling at full speed.

Diamondbacks Need A Different Arm to Break Out

Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It would benefit the D-backs more to see young right-hander Brandon Pfaadt put together a true breakout season. Though Pfaadt showed signs of that in the 2023 postseason, his seasons since have been categorized by inconsistency, with excellent stretches balanced by brutal performances.

Pfaadt has shown he's capable of delivering in the biggest moments, he just needs to develop a higher level of consistency. He's reportedly working on tweaking his mechanics slightly, in hopes of turning his slider back into a weapon.

This article first appeared on Arizona Diamondbacks on SI and was syndicated with permission.

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