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Nationals Former First-Round Pick Highlighted as Someone Who Could Breakout in 2026

Originally posted on Washington Nationals on SI
By Brad Wakai | Last updated Dec 30, 2025 4:21 PM ET

There are a lot of young players the Washington Nationals will by relying on to get themselves out of this rebuilding process.

With Paul Toboni and his front office taking over this baseball operations department, the expectation is that even more youth is going to be infused into this franchise as they start getting their own guys and prospects into the building.

However, when it comes to what will be on the field in 2026, someone who the Nationals believed was going to become a star for them before he largely disappointed has a chance to turn his career around. That's because Sam Sallick of Federal Baseball believes Jackson Rutledge can be a breakout reliever for Washington next season.

Jackson Rutledge Will Benefit Majorly From Pitch Mix Change

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Fans might roll their eyes at that since the 2019 first-round pick put up a 5.77 ERA across 63 appearances during the 2025 campaign after he converted to the bullpen. But there is a real reason for optimism that things could turn around next year.

"... Rutledge has some pitch usage tweaks he could make that could really help him. Last season, he was not throwing his best pitches enough. The results and the stuff models agree that Rutledge's two best pitches are his slider and splitter. He only threw the slider 25.8% of the time and he threw the splitter just 9.4% of the time," Sallick wrote.

It's been well documented that the past regime was stuck in their ways when it came to a "fastball first" approach for their pitchers where all the secondary stuff was supposed to play off the heater. While that can be effective for some, it's not a one-size-fits-all model for every pitcher across the board. And that seems to be the case for Rutledge, whose best two are the slider and splitter.

Jackson Rutledge, Elevated 95mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/Lx7apqPEyN
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 24, 2023

"... the slider should be the pitch Rutledge throws the most as a reliever. Batters hit just .194 against the pitch with a 39.7% whiff rate. The home run prone Rutledge also did not allow a single long ball on the slider. ... Upping his splitter usage would be one way to help solve his lefty problems. He threw the splitter 20% of the time against lefties with solid results," added Sallick.

There are concerns regarding Rutledge and his overall profile. He was in the first percentile of hard hit rate (49.1%), in the seventh percentile of average exit velocity against (91 mph) and the 23rd percentile in barrel rate (9.8%). Combine that with having a low strikeout and chase rate while also having a high walk rate compared to the league average, and the 26-year-old certainly needs to show he can do it at the big league level.

But with this new regime coming in where they embrace modern baseball, it would not be surprising to see the former first-round remind everyone why he was taken 17th overall back in 2019.