New Playoff Projection Gives Cubs More Cautious Outlook for 2025

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New Playoff Projection Gives Cubs More Cautious Outlook for 2025

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Alvin Garcia | Last updated Feb 5, 2025 4:45 PM ET

The Chicago Cubs have been the subject of much optimism this offseason, with PECOTA projections initially painting them as a 90-win team and clear NL Central favorites.

However, the latest FanGraphs projections offer a much more cautious outlook, with the Cubs projected to finish around 84-78 and just three games ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers for the division crown.

Earlier this week, PECOTA ranked the Cubs among MLB’s best teams, forecasting 90.6 wins and an 87% playoff probability. The new FanGraphs projections tell a different story, predicting only 84 wins and lowering Chicago’s playoff chances to 55.4%.

While the Cubs are still favored to win the NL Central in both models, the margin for error is much smaller in FanGraphs’ forecast.

This drop in confidence likely stems from the uncertainty surrounding some of the Cubs’ young players, including Pete Crow-Armstrong, Matt Shaw, and Michael Busch, who are expected to take on significant roles in 2025.

Additionally, despite offseason additions, the Cubs’ rotation and bullpen still lack elite depth.

While the projections may not align, the Cubs’ recent activity suggests they lean more toward PECOTA’s optimism.

Their reported interest in Alex Bregman, Dylan Cease, and Michael King indicates they view themselves as legitimate contenders. A team expecting only 84 wins might hesitate to pursue such high-profile moves.

With Spring Training approaching, the Cubs could still add key pieces to solidify their roster.

Whether they ultimately perform closer to PECOTA’s bullish outlook or FanGraphs’ tempered expectations remains to be seen—but with the NL Central wide open, the Cubs have a golden opportunity to take control in 2025.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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